Democratic mayoral primary winner and state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is barely leading the pack of candidates to potentially govern New York City in a new poll released Tuesday.
The survey shows he is in a statistical tie with former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa after previously landing positive polls on the heels of his primary win.
Why It Matters
The statistical tie between Mamdani, who captured the Democratic nomination with a surprise primary win, and Cuomo, running under his new “Fight and Deliver” party, underscores the unprecedented realignment of New York City politics. Traditionally, the Democratic primary winner holds a commanding lead into November.
This year, however, Mamdani’s break from establishment norms, as a democratic socialist—and his ambitious policy proposals—have not at the moment garnered formal public endorsements from New York’s Democratic leaders, reflecting the degree of uncertainty and division within the party.
His platform, which proposes measures like free city buses and city-owned grocery stores, marks a distinct departure from prior mayoral campaigns and long-standing party orthodoxies.
The poll results emerge as Cuomo relaunched his campaign as an independent following his primary defeat by Mamdani. The state assemblyman, meanwhile, continued drawing support through a platform centered on affordability and sweeping progressive reforms. With multiple prominent independents in the race—including Mayor Eric Adams and other rivals—the New York City mayoral contest has entered a ramped-up and competitive phase.
What To Know
In the HarrisX poll released Tuesday, Mamdani received 26 percent of the vote in a four-way race. Cuomo picked up 23 percent; Adams collected 13 percent; and Sliwa landed 22 percent.
Cuomo, Mamdani and Sliwa all fall within the margin of error of 4.1 percent. The survey was conducted online July 7 and July 8 among 585 registered New York City voters.
The poll was also conducted before Cuomo announced his bid to run as an independent.
In head-to-head matchups, the survey shows Mamdani surging ahead of Adams, 43 percent to 36 percent, but faring poorly against Cuomo.
In the two-person matchup, Cuomo received 50 percent of the vote compared to Mamdani’s 35 percent.
Newsweek also reached out to Mamdani and Adams’ campaigns via email for comment.
In other polls since his primary win, Mamdani has held a decisive lead over Cuomo, Adams and Sliwa.
In an interview with News 12 New York that aired Tuesday night, Mamdani was asked about his lack of formal endorsements from party leadership.
“I’ve been having a number of conversations with leaders across our party and across the city and state and I’ve appreciated those conversations with Governor [Kathy] Hochul, with Senator [Chuck] Schumer, with Congressman [Hakeem] Jeffries. They are conversations that have always come back to the importance of affordability in the fight for working New Yorkers.”
Mamdani added that he looks at these lawmakers as “partners” in delivering affordability and noted their defense of him after swipes from President Donald Trump.
What People Are Saying
Sliwa, in an emailed statement sent to Newsweek reacting to the poll: “For the first time since 2009, a Republican for NYC mayor is within the margin of error to win. That Republican is me. The momentum is real. I’m running to be the People’s Mayor and I’m going to win on November 4th!”
Mamdani posted to X on Monday: “While Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams trip over each other to win the approval of billionaires in backrooms, our campaign remains focused on working New Yorkers and their clear desire for a different kind of politics.”
Adams, on X last week: “Zohran Mamdani studied poverty. I lived it. He’s an academic elitist with plans he can’t implement, or worse, that would hurt working-class New Yorkers. Affordability is a real crisis, and I’m fighting for the people who feel it every single day. I grew up poor, joined the working class, and have spent my life fighting for them. Over the past three years, I’ve put $30 billion back in their pockets through targeted tax relief and expanded benefits. This campaign, like my mayoralty, is about them.”
Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, in the poll: “These numbers show a volatile race still taking shape. While the progressive base is fueling Mamdani’s rise, Cuomo’s broad name recognition and moderate appeal make him a formidable general election challenger.”
Laura Tamman, clinical assistant professor of political science at Pace University, to Newsweek via email Tuesday: “This pollster does not have a strong track record in general, and specifically in this race: https://www.harrisx.com/posts/fix-the-city-final-pre-primary-poll-cuomo-maintains-comfortable-lead-over-mamdani. I would not make any judgements based on their data.”
Tamman added: “Mamdani won very broadly, with voters from a range of ideological points of view and diverse demographic profiles. He made history by bringing a significant number of new, young voters into the process. I don’t see a path for any of the opposing candidates on the ballot, unless something dramatic and unforeseen happens between now and November. If Cuomo were to mount an energetic campaign, he might be able to keep it competitive. Nothing in the way he has conducted himself since he “relaunched” his campaign, however, suggests he has the energy or enthusiasm to make this a close race.”
What Happens Next
With the general election approaching in November, polling will play an increasingly critical role, particularly as Cuomo and other independent candidates weigh their odds against Mamdani.
Update 7/15/25, 10:42 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Mamdani on News 12 New York.