The 33-year-old self-described democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani leads a five-candidate New York City mayoral race by double digits and amasses more than 50 percent of the vote regardless of his opponent, according to a new poll.
Why It Matters
The New York state assemblyman sent political shock waves across New York City when he defeated political stalwart and former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary, further advancing a contentious election cycle that has Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams vying for the mayoral seat as independent candidates, alongside former federal prosecutor Jim Walden.
On the Republican side of the race, 71-year-old conservative activist and talk show host Curtis Sliwa is aiming for a major upset.
What To Know
A new poll of 1,453 New York City residents conducted by Zenith Research and Public Progress Solutions from July 16 to July 24 found Mamdani with a commanding lead in the current field of five, attaining 50 percent of support while the combined level of support for the four others and undecided likely voters totaled 49 percent.
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Cuomo placed in second, receiving 22 percent, while Sliwa garnered 13 percent. Adams received 7 percent of support, Walden collected 1 percent and “others/I don’t know” totaled 6 percent.
In a four-way race without Cuomo, Mamdani’s support increased to 55 percent. In a four-way race without Adams, Mamdani’s backing rose to 51 percent.
Mamdani’s level of support never dips below 50 percent in the poll and increases with a thinner field and head-to-head contests.
A one-on-one matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo results in a win for the assemblyman of 52 percent to 40 percent, per the poll, with 8 percent undecided. Mamdani’s advantage grows if facing off against Adams, increasing to 59 percent compared to 32 percent for the sitting mayor.
Mamdani is also the only candidate the majority of respondents would consider (58 percent) voting for in this fall’s election.
In comparison, 37 percent said they would consider voting for Cuomo; 27 percent for Adams; 26 percent for Sliwa; and 10 percent for Walden.
When asked who they would not consider voting for, just 32 percent of respondents said Mamdani. Respective numbers for Cuomo, Adams, Sliwa and Walden were 60 percent, 68 percent, 59 percent and 40 percent.
Half of respondents said they don’t know enough about Walden to properly answer—the highest percentage by far, and 35 percentage points more than Sliwa and 40 percentage points more than Mamdani.
The poll, consisting of respondents from Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond counties, has a 2.9 percent margin of error for registered voters and 3.9 percent for likely 2025 mayoral election voters.
About 70 percent of respondents said they were “dissatisfied” with the direction of the city. The most important issues to them are housing costs (65 percent); price of groceries, utilities and household items (58 percent); and crime/public safety (51 percent).
The poll represents the largest sample size of any publicly released figures pertaining to the 2025 New York City mayoral general election.
What People Are Saying
David Schwartz, chairman of Gotham Polling and Analytics, in emailed remarks to Newsweek on Tuesday: “The numbers show that if everyone stays in the race, Mamdani will be tougher to beat. If the field clears for Cuomo, Cuomo would have a reasonable opportunity to win in a limited field. Mamdani does top out at numbers that were inconceivable just months ago; he does top out at around 40 percent. The moderate turnout is a key factor, as well as if college students are willing to come out in record numbers like they did in the primary.”
Mamdani, in an X post earlier this month showing Cuomo and President Donald Trump complimenting one another: “Trump loves Cuomo.”
Adams made remarks about Cuomo at the Bronx Dominican Parade over the weekend, criticizing him for stepping down as governor in 2021 when investigated for sexual harassment allegations: “I hung in there. I made a commitment to the city, that I was gonna serve as their mayor. He did not. He abandoned the state, and he stepped down from his role and his responsibility.”
Cuomo on Adams, in remarks made while he was grand marshal at this year’s Colombian Parade in Queens: “During his personal strife, he went and made a deal with President Trump to save himself at the cost of New Yorkers, and he put himself over the interest of New Yorkers.”
What Happens Next
The New York City mayoral general election is set for November 4. Adams, who won the office by running as a Democrat, is vying for his second term.