Russia’s battle for the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk is a “failure,” according to the head of a Ukrainian think tank, after many months of bitter fighting and slow Russian gains around the settlement.
Why It Matters
Russia has long hoped to take the Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk, but rather than attacking the settlement directly, Moscow has skirted to the south of the Donetsk town and advanced toward the border of Ukraine’s neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region.
Pokrovsk, a major logistics hub, has borne the brunt of the fiercest frontline clashes for much of the last year. The town has been referred to as a “fortress” settlement, key to Ukrainian defenses in the east and connected to other critical defensive cities.
What To Know
“We are seeing a coordinated Russian information campaign tied to their failure — the fact that they have lost the battle for Pokrovsk,” Serhii Kuzan, from the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, a Ukrainian think tank, said in an interview with Ukrainian broadcaster, Radio NV.
While Moscow has advanced around Pokrovsk, progress has been incremental for Russian troops and the town remains in Ukraine’s hands.
Ukraine has said Russia’s casualty count is “many times higher” than Ukraine’s around Pokrovsk.
This could not be independently verified, but Russia is known for its “meat grinder” assault tactics, or overwhelming Ukrainian defenses with high numbers of troops while racking up eyewatering casualties.
AP Photo/Michael Shtekel
Kuzan said Ukraine had “properly executed” its defensive strategy for Pokrovsk, disrupting Moscow’s timelines for seizing the town and “foiling their much larger offensive plans for this summer.”
“We disrupted their plans, and now they are falling behind their own schedules — schedules that are critical for their summer offensive campaign,” Kuzan said.
“They can’t push us out of Donetsk Oblast because we stopped them under Pokrovsk,” he added.
Kyiv has warned Russia is pulling together reserve forces for a major push, while senior Ukrainian officials say Moscow launched a concerted effort in two areas of northeastern Ukraine earlier this month.
Ukraine had said that it launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August last year, partly to pull Russian resources away from Donetsk settlements like Pokrovsk.
Russia has recently advanced along a railroad line west of the village of Shevchenko, which sits south of Pokrovsk, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, which tracks daily changes to the frontline, said on Tuesday.
Ukraine’s military said early on Wednesday it had “stopped” 75 Russian attacks around Pokrovsk over the previous 24 hours, including around Shevchenko.
In a later statement on Wednesday, Ukraine’s top soldier, General Oleksandr Syrsky, said Russia had “significantly increased” attacks close to Pokrovsk in a bid to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region, despite announcing a unilateral ceasefire due to come into force in May.
“The Russian command daily throws new units into battle, drives its soldiers to their deaths, reports on illusory successes and victories,” Syrsky said.
The Kremlin declared a ceasefire on Monday to observe the 80th anniversary of the Great Patriotic War. This is the term used by Russia to describe its participation in World War II after it joined the Allies in 1941, and the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Moscow has consistently claimed its invasion of Ukraine aimed to “de-Nazify” the country, a pretext widely rejected.
Russia will not conduct any military operations between midnight on May 8 and midnight on May 11, the Kremlin said, adding that “Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example.” The announcement was greeted with skepticism by Ukraine.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday its forces had seized a village in the the north of the Donetsk region. Newsweek could not independently verify this.
What People Are Saying
The Russian government said on Wednesday: “As a result of active offensive actions, units of the West military group liberated the settlement of Novoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic.”
Syrsky said on Wednesday: “Despite loud statements about readiness for a ceasefire for the May holidays, the occupiers have significantly increased the intensity of hostilities, focusing their main efforts on the Pokrovsk direction.”
What Happens Next
It is not clear yet if and how the failure to capture Pokrovsk will affect Russia’s alleged plans for a new summer offensive, where Moscow allegedly hopes to deploy troops on motorcycles to counter Ukraine’s drones.