Online retail activity in the United States has experienced its sharpest slowdown in over a decade, as new data indicates widespread declines across many e-commerce categories.
Why It Matters
The downturn comes as President Donald Trump‘s administration pursues a more aggressive trade policy, imposing tariffs that have directly affected both consumer buying habits and retailer strategies.
The timing of this e-commerce contraction coincides with heightened trade tensions and uncertain policy timelines. A 90-day pause in the new tariffs is set to expire on July 9, with the Trump administration signaling that countries not finalizing bilateral trade deals by this date face a return to higher tariff rates, some as high as 50 percent.
What To Know
AlixPartners’ latest home delivery survey shows that nearly all major product segments have seen year-over-year double-digit declines in online purchases, with only grocery sales proving resilient in the face of new import duties, according to CNBC.
Consumers, retail, and transportation companies were surveyed between May 31 and June 3.
Newsweek reached out to AlixPartners via email for comment.
Newly imposed tariffs have been described not only as a catalyst for immediate consumer behavioral change but also as a source of broader economic uncertainty.
The majority of surveyed consumers said they would delay purchases or even shift their buying to domestic suppliers if import prices continue to rise.
About 66 percent of respondents said they would seek domestic options if overseas prices increase by 10 percent. Another roughly 34 percent of respondents said they would delay purchases due to price uncertainty. Another 28 percent said they paid for purchases early on to avoid extra import costs.
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Just 20 percent of respondents expressed an urge or need to “Buy American.”
“Tariffs are materially influencing consumer behavior, leading to both timing shifts and a potential reshoring of demand,” said Chris Considine, a partner at AlixPartners. “Retailers may need to reassess sourcing and pricing strategies to remain competitive.”
Leah Brooks, professor at the Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration at George Washington University, told Newsweek that it’s expected that tariffs will cause the most pain where the cost of the item is relatively low relative to the cost of shipping and delivery.
“What is that? All kinds of small things that we’ve become used to ordering online,” Brooks said. “Yesterday, I ordered some plastic bag closers (that I love!) and they are appreciably more expensive than last time I ordered them. I ordered fewer of them because of that.
“This is bad for the plastic bag closer company, and I suspect it’s also bad for Amazon, or any company that makes money on getting the products—likely to be more expensive in short order—to you.”
The U.S. dollar has recorded its weakest start to a year since 1973, declining 10 percent so far in 2025.
Analysts cite the unpredictability of trade policy and increasing fiscal deficits as compounding pressures, with the Federal Reserve hesitating to reduce rates further amid concerns about tariff-related inflation.
In AlixPartners’ 2025 Turnaround and Transformation Survey, 27 percent of respondents cited tariffs and regulatory changes as the second-highest distress trigger economically, trailing geopolitical instability (43 percent) but ahead of cost and availability of capital (12 percent).
What People Are Saying
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television on June 30: “We have countries that are negotiating in good faith, but they should be aware that if we can’t get across the line…we could spring back to the April 2 levels.”
Jim Mesterharm, global co-head of AlixPartners’ Turnaround and Restructuring Services Practice, in a statement: “Geopolitical disruption has firmly moved to the top of the boardroom agenda. Agility, once again, must become a core operating principle. CEOs and boards need to move fast to strengthen their organizations’ ability to absorb external shocks, pivot at speed as economic conditions evolve, and make the right decisions.”
What Happens Next
As of Monday, only a handful of trade deals have been finalized.