The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned that Tropical Storm Erin is expected to strengthen and could become a major hurricane over the weekend as it shifts just north of the northern Leeward Islands, raising the risk of flash floods, landslides and life-threatening sea swells.
Why It Matters
Erin has the potential to become the first hurricane of the 2025 season. None of the four previously named storms—Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter—intensified into hurricanes, but Chantal delivered heavy rains and flooding to North Carolina in early July.
What To Know
The NHC said Tropical Storm Erin was moving toward the west at a speed of nearly 17 mph on Thursday evening and it was expected to turn west-northwest overnight.
“Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend,” the agency said. “Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Erin is expected to soon become a hurricane and could become a major hurricane by the end of this weekend.”
The storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals of up 4 inches—with isolated downpours dropping 6 inches—are
expected, raising the risk of isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.
Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the NHC said.
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Brooks Garner said in a post to X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday: “Tropical Storm Erin has strengthened and is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow. No significant changes to its forecast track…though we’re watching the models closely to see if there are any changes to its expected curve out to sea.”
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said: “Do not underestimate the power of a major hurricane even passing by offshore. These massive storms produce very rough surf and lethal rip currents that can impact beaches even hundreds of miles away.”
What Happens Next
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, while the eastern Pacific season began on May 15, also lasting through November.
NHC says that August and September are typically the most destructive months of the Atlantic season.