It will come as no surprise to hockey fans that Edmonton star Connor McDavid is favored to win the 2025 Conn Smythe Trophy, which is given annually to the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
After all, McDavid won the award a year ago despite Florida beating Edmonton for the Stanley Cup trophy in seven games. He became the sixth player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe Trophy while playing for a team that did not capture the Stanley Cup.
After a seven-game marathon between the Panthers and Oilers a year ago, Edmonton — which has home ice after having to play last year’s series-deciding Game 7 on the road — is the slight betting favorite this year.
Conn Smythe Trophy Odds: McDavid Favored
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| Connor McDavid | +110 | -105 | +100 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | +250 | +280 | +260 |
| Aleksander Barkov | +550 | +600 | +550 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +750 | +800 | +750 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | +2500 | +2600 | +2500 |
| Sam Bennett | +3000 | +2600 | +2800 |
| Stuart Skinner | +5000 | +4900 | +3300 |
Conn Smythe Trophy Betting Analysis, Picks
The case for McDavid is self-explanatory. Unless you don’t give Edmonton a real chance to win this series, he’s a solid bet right now, especially at +110 at DraftKings.
Best* Conn Smythe Bet: Connor McDavid (+110 at DraftKings)
*We should probably call McDavid the “safest” Conn Smythe bet instead of the “best” one given how obvious it is, but either way, that’s our first recommendation here.
As we saw in this matchup last year, anything can happen when the Panthers and Oilers get together, but the opportunity to take McDavid at plus-money is hard to pass up — have we mentioned that he won the award last year despite his team losing the series?
There are several other intriguing options, though. The fact that McDavid is just one of four players whose pre-Stanley Cup Final Conn Smythe odds are 8-to-1 or shorter across the board shows that he’s no lock.
If Florida wins the Stanley Cup, the odds indicate that either goalie Sergei Bobrovsky or Aleksander Barkov — who just earned his second straight Selke Trophy (best defensive forward) — will probably win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
But between McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and its underrated supporting cast, Edmonton just has too much firepower for me to recommend Bobrovsky, especially at shorter than 3-to-1 odds.
On the Florida side, Sam Bennett — who enters the Stanley Cup Final as the NHL playoff leader with 10 goals — tands out to me as the best value bet to win this award at +3000 at DraftKings.
The Panthers’ balance makes it hard to predict who will score the goals for them. Still, it’s hard to deny that Bennett — who has scored almost as any playoff goals as his team’s second and third-leading scorers combined (Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe have both scored six goals) — offers incredible upside at 30-to-1 (DK) to win the Conn Smythe.
Best Conn Smythe Longshot Bet: Stuart Skinner (+5000 at DK)
If there’s a non-McDavid Oiler worth backing to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, it might be 26-year-old goalie Stuart Skinner. There’s some value here based on line-shopping, if nothing else, as bet365 lists Skinner at just +3300 as of June 4.
He’s had an up-and-down playoffs. He was benched after two rough outings vs. the Kings to start the playoffs. But after his backup, Calvin Pickard, got injured in the second round, Skinner was solid in his return to action against both Vegas in the conference semis and Dallas in the conference finals, with three shutouts in his last seven games.
Skinner also boasts an impressive save percentage (.944) and goals-against average (1.41) in his last seven appearances.
If he can stay hot in a low-scoring series win over a Florida team that has reached back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, he could absolutely steal some Conn Smythe votes, if not the trophy itself, from McDavid.
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