Michigan presents an opportunity for Republicans to flip a Senate seat in the 2026 midterms, but a new poll suggested the race will be close in the battleground state that narrowly backed President Donald Trump last November.
Why It Matters
Senator Gary Peters’ retirement in Michigan leaves the Senate seat open, and candidates from both parties are trying to seize on the rare open seat in the Great Lake State.
The Michigan Senate race will likely be one of the most competitive, and expensive, of the midterms. The state has emerged as one of the closest battlegrounds, backing Trump in 2016 and 2024 but voting for Joe Biden in 2020. Republicans will be looking to expand their Senate majority, but it’s a must win for Democrats who are hoping to ride a “blue wave” to flip the chamber in November 2026.
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What To Know
A new poll conducted by the Glengariff Group and the Detroit Regional Chamber asked Michigan voters who they would support in hypothetical matchups of the election. It found that the race will likely be competitive, but how close could depend on who emerges from each party’s primary.
Representative Haley Stevens held the strongest lead off any Democrat against former Representative Mike Rogers and Representative Bill Huizenga, who has not formally announced a campaign but has been floated as a potential candidate.
Stevens led Rogers by 6 points and Huizenga by 8.4 points among “definite voters,” the poll found.
State Senator Mallory McMorrow led Rogers by 1.4 points and Huizenga by 4.7 points, according to the poll.
Rogers held a 1.9-point lead over Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who ran for governor in 2018, while El-Sayed held a 2.5-point lead over Huizenga, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 600 registered voters from May 5 to 8 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.
How Competitive Will Michigan Senate Race Be?
The Michigan Senate race has “the chance to be very close,” David Dulio, director for civic engagement and distinguished professor of political science at Oakland University, told Newsweek.
“Any time there is an open-seat contest, the competitiveness usually goes up as the candidates are often evenly matched in terms of quality and funding usually flows into these races,” Dulio said. “Given the narrow majority Republicans have in the Senate, this race will be high on both parties’ lists. For the Democrats to win back control, they will have to keep the seats they currently hold. The GOP sees this as a very good opportunity for a pickup.”
If the electorate is similar to 2018—the midterm during Trump’s first presidency—Democrats may not need to win back Trump voters, he said.
“Simply put, many Trump voters didn’t show up in 2018,” he said. “There’s a strong chance that happens again in 2026. It goes back to the historical trends in midterm elections that often sees a surge in supporters for a presidential candidate in the presidential cycle and a decline in turnout among those voters during the midterm.”
Tariffs may be a critical issue on the minds of Michigan voters next year, he said. Democrats in the race “see a real opportunity,” as the consensus is that it will likely be a “bad year” for Republicans. Rogers, meanwhile, has done a “good job of clearing the primary field,” Dulio said.
Michigan was one of the closest states in the 2024 presidential election. It backed Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by 1.4 percentage points.
At the same time, Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who at the time was a member of the House of Representatives, prevailed over Rogers in the Senate race. She won by only 0.3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Andrew Mamo, Mallory McMorrow for Michigan spokesman, told Newsweek: “We’re thrilled with where our campaign stands at the beginning of this race. She has a clear path to beating any Republican who comes out of their primary and is working every day to bring people together to get it done.”
The El-Sayed campaign told Newsweek: “This early poll reflects what we’ve seen on the trail: our movement for working people is gaining momentum. Unlike the career politicians, Abdul has never and will never taken a cent of corporate PAC money—and his bold, honest positions reflect that. As Michiganders get to know Abdul, his record of government leadership, and his vision for an economy that puts people first, we know our movement will continue to grow.”
Haley Stevens campaign spokesperson Reeves Oyster told Newsweek: “This poll makes it clear that Haley Stevens is the only candidate in this race who can stand up to Donald Trump and Elon Musk‘s chaos agenda in the Senate to lower costs, grow Michigan’s manufacturing economy, and fight for Michigan families.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, said when Rogers announced his candidacy: “Mike Rogers is the conservative leader that Michigan needs in the U.S. Senate. As an Army veteran and former special agent, Mike understands the importance of putting service before self. We need him in the U.S. Senate to help achieve President Trump’s America First agenda and to bring manufacturing and good-paying jobs back to Michigan.”
What Happens Next
Michigan’s primary will be held in August 2026, so candidates have more than a year to make their case to voters. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a pure toss-up.