The 25-year-old slugger who has been dubbed the “Japanese Babe Ruth” is now a free agent, available to be signed by any major league team. But one former Boston Red Sox player who is now a TV analyst for the team is already warning against signing Munetaka Murakami. The Nippon Professional Baseball single-season home run record-holder (56 in 2022) entered the posting system Friday.
That means, while any major league team may negotiate with Murakami, the team that lands him will be required to pay a hefty fee to his NPB team, the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, in addition to whatever salary they agree upon with the eight-year NPB veteran.
Murakami is “widely expected to fetch a nine-figure deal,” according to ESPN baseball insider Jeff Passan. But there is one statistic that came to the attention of former Red Sox infielder Lou Merloni that caused him to declare pursuing the 265 career home run hitter “a waste of money.”
“Stay away,” Merloni advised the Red Sox, in an online post Saturday.
The specific statistic that caused Merloni to warn against spending money to sign Murakami: “Murakami had a .095 batting average against pitches 93 mph or harder last season in NPB,” according to Rotoworld’s James Schiano.
According to statistics posted by Lucas Borja, contributor to WorldBaseball.com, Murakami’s best season against 93 mph or greater fastballs was 2022 when he hit .327 against them. But his average on those high-velocity pitches fell to .128 in 2023, rebounding only somewhat to .190 in 2024.
According to career statistics for his entire eight years in NPB, posted by the NPB-tracking social media account Gaijin Baseball, Murakami has compiled a batting average of .188 in 254 at-bats that ended with a pitch of more than 93 mph.
Only 16 of Murakami’s 265 round-trippers have come off pitches faster than 93 mph, according to the stats cited by Gaijin Baseball.
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Major league fastballs as of 2024 averaged 94.2 mph. Based on data from this year compiled by Statcast, there were 242 pitchers in MLB whose fastballs averaged speeds topping 93 mph — led by San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller who averaged 101.2 with his heater.
Another Japan-baseball account, Yakyu Cosmopolitan, posted more numbers for the left-handed hitting Murakami, showing that over his last three seasons, Murakami’s whiff rate — that is, of all pitches at which he swung, the percentage he missed on — was 37.8 percent against right-handed pitchers, 33.4 percent against southpaws.
A study by Baseball America found that in the 2024 season, the average whiff rate for major league hitters was approximately 25 percent.
“I am out on this guy,” Merloni declared in a post responding to Murakami’s whiff rate — an understandable reaction given that the average MLB hitter misses on one of every four swings but Murakami whiffs on more than one of every three.
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