A third of children are predicted to be obese or overweight globally by 2050, according to new research.
On March 3, The Lancet published research led by Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI) finding that a third of children and adolescents will be overweight (385 million) or obese (360 million) within the next 25 years.
The forecast equates to 356 million children aged 5–14 years and 390 million aged 15–24 years, with one in six facing obesity.
The staggering rise in global obesity among young people has raised alarms with rates for those aged 5 to 24 tripling between 1990 and 2021—a 244 percent increase to 174 million.
The surge suggests that efforts to combat obesity are falling short, leaving an entire generation vulnerable to long-term risks.
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By 2021, nearly half a billion children and adolescents—493 million—were classified as overweight or obese, highlighting an urgent need for more effective interventions.
Childhood obesity treatment pioneer Evan Nadler told Newsweek that a combination of ultra-processed foods and added sugars are driving the global obesity epidemic.
Nadler, who also ran the Childhood Obesity Program at Children’s National Hospital in Washington DC, also argues that the intergenerational transmission of obesity is a bigger risk to children and teenagers.
“What that means is the in-utero environment that babies develop in can increase their risk of developing obesity as a child if the mom either has/develops obesity while she is pregnant or develops gestational diabetes while pregnant,” he said.
The analysis, released on World Obesity Day, utilized the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study to estimate current and future overweight and obesity levels in 204 countries and territories.
The United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru and Tonga are expected to have the highest prevalence, while China, Egypt, India and the US will have the largest number of children and adolescents with obesity by 2050.
In Australia, children and adolescents have experienced some of the fastest transitions to obesity globally, with girls more likely to be obese than overweight. By 2050, it is forecast that 2.2 million Australians aged 5–24 years will be obese and 1.6 million overweight.
Globally, more boys aged 5–14 years will be obese than overweight by 2050.
MCRI’s Dr Jessica Kerr said the consequences of high BMI—such as diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing issues, fertility problems and mental health challenges—will have significant negative impacts on children, adolescents and future generations.
“Despite these findings indicating monumental societal failures and a lack of coordinated global action across the entire developmental window to reduce obesity, our results provide optimism that this trajectory can be avoided if action comes before 2030.”
Dr. Angela Fitch, former President of the Obesity Medicine Association and co-founder and Chief Medical Officer at knownwell—a weight management service—agreed that early intervention is key.
“We also need to treat obesity comprehensively across a patient’s life span much like we identify and treat other diseases like asthma across a patient’s lifetime. Access to holistic comprehensive care… early in the disease process can hopefully change the trajectory of outcomes for children with obesity.”
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Reference
Kerr, J. et al. (2025). Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00397-6