The NFL season just keeps getting better, as six (!) of 15 games in Week 11 (Dolphins-Commanders, Panthers-Falcons, Texans-Titans, Bears-Vikings, Rams-Seahawks and Broncos-Chiefs) were decided by 3 points or fewer.
In Week 12, all three primetime games feature matchups between teams that are .500 or better, including a pair of must-see NFC West vs. NFC South contests (Bucs-Rams on SNF and Panthers-49ers on MNF).
This weekend’s highlights also include a huge battle between the Colts and the desperate Chiefs, plus the Steelers visiting the Bears in a big game for both those teams’ playoff hopes.
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 86-78-1
All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Bills (-5.5) at Texans — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Texans +5.5
The smart play is here to probably go with common sense and take the Bills (7-3) to win by at least a touchdown. As good as the Texans (5-5) are defensively, surely the current favorites to win the AFC (+390 at FanDuel as of November 18) have enough firepower to win by at least 6 points in a battle between Josh Allen and Davis Mills*, right?
I’m just not sure about that at the moment, as Houston has one of the few defenses in the league that should be able to keep Allen in check. And the Texans should be able to do the one thing they have consistenly done well offensively in recent weeks (running the football) against a Bills run D that has given up just under 400 yards on the ground the last two weeks.
So, give me the underdogs to cover in an ugly Thurday night slugfest.
*We should acknowledge here that this line will move if CJ Stroud, who remains in the concussion protocol as of Tuesday, ends up being active.
Steelers at Bears (-3) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bears -3
As of Tuesday morning, it’s unclear whether Pittsburgh (6-4) will have Aaron Rodgers, who is dealing with a left (non-throwing) wrist injury, or Mason Rudolph under center. At the moment, I’d take the Bears (7-3) — who have won seven of their last eight games — to do just enough to cover, even if Rodgers is healthy (and FWIW, Adam Schefter reported today that Rodgers is not expected to practice on Wednesday).
Obviously, I’ll be that much more bullish on Chicago staying hot if this ends up being a clash between Caleb Williams and Mason Rudolph. The latter played well vs. the Bengals last Sunday, completing 12-of-16 passes for 127 yards and 1 TD. I’d nevertheless fade him without hesitation on the road against a Chicago D that has forced a league-high 22 turnovers, including 21 in its last eight games.
Patriots (-8.5) at Bengals — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Patriots -8.5
This line is showing the Bengals (3-7) no respect, but right now, that’s understandable. The Cincinnati D has been awful all year, and this offense is going to be a lot less imposing without superstar wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who has been suspended for this game for spitting on Jalen Ramsey last Sunday.
The Patriots (9-2) should be able to light up the Bengals’ defense, and I like the underrated New England D to keep the Chase-less Bengals in check.
Giants at Lions (-10.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Lions -10.5
Few defenses in this league are capable of slowing down the Lions (6-4) the way Philadelphia did last Sunday night. This Sunday, the Lions return home, where the weather won’t be a factor. More importantly, Detroit has responded to every loss this year with a dominant performance the following week.
The Lions beat the Bears 52-21 after their Week 1 loss to the Packers and they beat the Bucs 24-9 after their Week 6 loss to the Chiefs. Most recently, they thumped Washington 44-22 following their Week 9 upset loss at home to Minnesota.
The Giants (2-9) are sixth-worst in the NFL in yards per play allowed (5.9) and dead-last in rushing yards per carry allowed (5.5). With that in mind, another eruption by a Lions offense that is fourth in the league in points per game wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
Vikings at Packers (-6.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Packers -6.5
I know I’m not the first person to ask this out loud this season, but are we sure the Vikings (4-6) can win games anywhere — much less on the road in Green Bay (6-3-1) — with JJ McCarthy completing just over 50 percent of his passes?
My answer to that question is a resounding “no” right now. If the Packers are without Josh Jacobs, who left Sunday’s win over the Giants with a knee injury (but reportedly avoided structural damage), covering at -6.5 is going to be tough, but I trust the Packers to get it done, even though I expect Minnesota’s tough D keeps this one close most of the way.
Seahawks (-13.5) at Titans — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Seahawks -13.5
There are a couple of ways to look at Sam Darnold’s disastrous, four-interception day in his team’s loss to the Rams last Sunday. The glass-half-empty approach is certainly understandable, as that was not Darnold’s first high-profile meltdown.
But to me, if nothing else, the fact that the Seahawks (7-3) lost by just two points and held the Rams to 21 points despite so many miscues bodes well for their chances of blowing out the likes of the Titans (1-9). (Now’s not the time to figure out what to expect from Darnold and the Seattle offense the next time they face an elite defense in a pressure situation).
Seattle has already won three games this year by at least 22 points, and this week’s opponent is arguably worse offensively than all three of the foes the Seahawks have blown out (New Orleans, Washington and Arizona).
Colts at Chiefs (-3.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Colts +3.5
Neither oddsmakers — nor the public, apparently — can quit the Chiefs, who fell to 5-5 with last Sunday’s loss to the Broncos.
I don’t feel great, per se, about backing Daniel Jones and the Colts (8-2) to win at Arrowhead in a do-or-die game for Kansas City. The latter remains a heavy favorite to make the playoffs (-205 at FanDuel) despite sitting well behind the 9-2 Broncos in the AFC West and a game behind the 6-4 Jaguars, who would have the 7-seed in the AFC if the regular season ended today, in the wild-card hunt.
Even against a Colts offense that can move the ball on anyone, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs finally win a close game. I don’t expect Kansas City to cover at -3.5, though, as Indianapolis deserves the benefit of the doubt, especially A) coming off a bye and B) with recently acquired star corner Sauce Gardner providing a huge boost in the secondary.
Jets at Ravens (-13.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Jets +13.5
First of all, I recommend staying away from this massive spread, as the Jets (2-8) are unpredictable following their switch at QB from Justin Fields to Tyrod Taylor. To make a late-season push, New York probably needs more than the 36-year-old Taylor is capable of at this point in his career, but I do expect the Jets’ passing offense to be much more dangerous than it has been to date.
The Ravens (5-5) survived last week’s clash with the Browns, but they hardly looked like a team worth backing to cover as two-touchdown favorites. Baltimore has been solid defensively throughout its four-game winning streak, but this offense is not pass-blocking well enough for Lamar Jackson — who has been pressured on over 33 percent of his dropbacks in two of his last three games since returning from injury — for me to lay this many points.
Browns at Raiders (-3) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Browns +3
Here’s another spread worth staying away from.
If your options are backing Shedeur Sanders and the Browns (2-8) on the road or the Geno Smith-led Raiders (2-8) vs. a very good defense like Cleveland’s (regardless of the venue), I recommend begging for a third option and/or staying away …
With that out of the way, if I have to take a side here, I’ll reluctantly go with Cleveland, whose defense should be able to force enough mistakes by Geno Smith to keep this game close.
One lotto-ticket bet to consider here: DraftKings allows you to pick what the score will be at halftime. Is it just me, or is Correct Score – First Half: 0-0 (+9000 — that’s right, 90-to-1) tempting?? Correct Score – First Quarter: 0-0 (+500 at DK) is also enticing, IMO, if you’re looking for a more realistic way to cash in on what is expected to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the season.
Jaguars (-2.5) at Cardinals — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Jaguars -2.5
I’m not ready to totally change my tune on the Jaguars (6-4), but there’s no denying what this team is capable of at its best. Including last Sunday’s dominant win over the Chargers, the Jags now boast victories over three teams with winning records (the 6-5 Panthers, the 7-4 49ers and the 7-4 Chargers), and they’ve also beaten both the Texans and the Chiefs.
I’m hesitant to lay the points because this team also lost to the Bengals and needed overtime to take down the Raiders earlier this year, but I’m going to go with Jacksonville to cover here. The Cardinals’ (3-7) first five losses this year all came by 4 points or less. They’ve been blown out the last two weeks, though, as turnovers and poor special teams play contributed to the Cards getting outscored 85-44 by the Seahawks and 49ers.
Eagles (-3.5) at Cowboys — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Cowboys +3.5
For my bold prediction (kneejerk overreaction??) of the week, I’m going to roll the dice and back the 4-5-1 Cowboys to cover as 3.5-point dogs. The Eagles just improved to 8-2 with dominant defensive showings in back-to-back wins over the Packers and Lions, but Philly’s offense has not only struggled to score (just 26 points combined over the last two weeks); it’s also had a hard time moving the football (just 13 first downs vs. the Packers in Week 10 and 16 vs. the Lions in Week 11).
Trusting anyone to move the ball on Philly after what this D just did to Jordan Love and Jared Goff in primetime is risky, but the ceiling for the Dallas offense is undeniable. That unit is now second in the league in points per game, and it could have easily broken 40 points in last night’s win over the Raiders.
But the real reason to like Dallas is that with its much-maligned defense now healthy — and much improved via its trade deadline pickups of star DT Quinnen Williams and solid linebacker Logan Wilson — the Cowboys suddenly look like a much more complete team than they have for most of this season.
Falcons at Saints (-1.5) — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Saints -1.5
Rookie QB Tyler Shough played much better than expected for the Saints (2-8) the last two weeks, and Atlanta’s (3-7) offense is in shambles, with starting QB Michael Penix Jr. and star WR Drake London both sidelined with injuries.
The Saints being favored this weekend would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, but right now, I actually A) understand why New Orleans is laying 1.5 points and B) trust them to cover at home.
Buccaneers at Rams (-6.5) — Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Pick: Rams -6.5
The Rams (8-2) are playing so well defensively right now that they were able to beat Seattle last Sunday despite one of the worst games Matthew Stafford has played across more than 230 career regular-season starts.
I took the Bucs (6-4) to cover at +5.5 on the road in Buffalo last Sunday, and they hung with the Bills for most of that game before fading late in a 44-32 loss. There’s not many squads I would trust to cover this spread against Baker Mayfield and Co., but I do like the Rams to stay hot defensively and bounce back offensively at home in primetime.
Panthers at 49ers (-7) — Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
Pick: Panthers +7
Bryce Young and the Panthers (6-5) are probably not as good offensively as they looked last Sunday vs. the Falcons, and they’re most likely not as bad as they looked in their home loss to the Saints in Week 10.
Time will tell what should be expected from this Carolina offense against a playoff contender like San Francisco, but on Sunday night, I think the Panthers will be able to score enough on the banged-up Niners D to keep this game tight for 60 minutes.
The 49ers (7-4) lit up the Cardinals last week in Brock Purdy’s first game in several weeks, but San Francisco has not exactly been dominant, as evidenced by its point differential of +9 on the year.
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