NFL Week 11 Player Prop Picks: 3 Favorite Picks for Sunday

Part of that increase has to do with their extreme offensive struggles over the past couple weeks, but stopping the run has been an issue for the Bears all season.

Enter Josh Jacobs, who has gotten to this number in five of nine games this season, and in one of the games when he came up short, he ran for 73 yards.

With Packers QB Jordan Love dealing with injuries on and off this entire season, the Packers have become one of the more rush-heavy teams in the NFL, with the fifth-highest rush rate in the league.

They have the third-highest neutral rush rate as well, as the Packers have not run the ball at a high rate just to salt away games while leading in the final minutes.

So, Green Bay should continue to run the ball at a high rate on Sunday, and it should have success doing so against this Bears porous run defense.

J. Taylor 100+ Rushing Yards (+145) Bet365

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET

Speaking of a good running back against a soft run defense, let’s get into our second pick of the slate: Jonathan Taylor against another bad run defense, this time in the Jets.

On the season, the Jets have the fifth-worst run defense, according to DVOA, and they have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game.

Their advanced rushing metrics do not show them to be as bad of a run defense as the Bears, but they also have a much tougher matchup going up against Taylor.

Despite the Colts having QB troubles this entire season, Taylor has gotten to the 100-plus rushing yards mark in four of his seven games.

The three games he went under were against the best rush defense DVOA (Vikings), the second-best (Texans) and the ninth-best (Steelers). He had 88 yards in that game against the Steelers, which showed that he can still perform even in a tougher matchup.

Despite the fact that the Colts have been losing in the majority of their games, they still run the ball at a high rate, with the 10th-highest neutral rush rate in the NFL.

Look for Taylor to continue to have success on the ground in this one.

Russell Wilson 250+ Pass. Yards (+160) DK

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET

For our third and final pick of the slate, it is time to go back to our one of our favorite NFL betting systems for this season: QB passing yardage prop overs against the Ravens.

It has been a gold mine, and we continue to get good lines from the sportsbooks, so we will gladly take advantage.

So far this season, the Ravens have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL at 314.4 per game, with the next-closest team at 281.8.

The Ravens have played in 10 games so far this season, and nine of 10 QBs they’ve faced have hit their passing prop over. So, not only are the Ravens allowing a ton of passing yards, but we have yet to get to a point where the books are catching on and adjusting the price.

Just last week, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop was set at 268.5 yards, and he threw for 428 yards.

Wilson has only started three games this season, but he has thrown for at least 250 yards in two of those games. He did go under last week, but that was a game in which the Steelers ran for 140 rushing yards, which they’re unlikely to do against the stout Ravens run defense.

Part of the reason the Ravens have been allowing so many passing yards is due to the fact that you simply cannot run on them.

They are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game, and they allow the fewest yards per carry in the NFL (3.4).

To go even further, they are also allowing the lowest yards after contact per attempt and the third-fewest adjusted rushing yards before contact per attempt.

So, while the Steelers might want to run the ball, the guess is that they will not have success doing so, but they should be able to have success through the air against this Ravens secondary.

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