Seven Senate races could be decided by 5 or fewer percentage points as Democrats and Republicans fight for control of Congress‘ upper chamber on Election Day, November 5, according to the latest polling averages.
Democrats were always expected to face an uphill battle to defend their slim Senate majority this year as they currently hold several seats in conservative-leaning or purple states.
Most political forecasters view the GOP as favored to win a narrow majority following a spate of polls suggesting that Republican Tim Sheehy is in a strong position to flip the Montana senate seat held by Democratic Senator Jon Tester.
But Democrats are putting up a stronger fight elsewhere, as polls show Senate Democrats performing better than Vice President Kamala Harris in the battleground states roughly viewed as toss-ups in her race against former President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, Republicans in Florida, Nebraska and Texas, three states they hoped to easily win, are facing potentially close races, polls show.
This map shows the closest Senate races ahead of Election Day.
In a statement to Newsweek, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia said that Senate Democrats “are in the strongest possible position to defend our majority.
“We have better candidates, stronger campaigns and our candidates are attracting support from voters of every political persuasion,” he said. “Senate Republicans’ deeply flawed candidates are hurting their prospects across the entire Senate map.”
Newsweek reached out to the National Republican Senatorial Committee for comment via email.
The latest Montana polls showed a close race. An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 voters from October 23 to 25, showed Sheehy up three points (51 percent to 48 percent).
A Montana State University Billings survey showed the two candidates tied, each receiving 43 percent of the vote. It polled 760 voters from September 30 to October 16. Pollster 538’s average had Sheehy up 5.4 points on Tuesday.
Democrats held slight leads in four Great Lakes states.
Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Representative Mike Rogers are competing in Michigan’s Senate race. A CNN/SSRS poll, conducted from October 23 to 28 among 726 likely voters, showed Slotkin up 6 points (48 percent to 42 percent). An Emerson poll of 1,000 likely voters from October 25 to 28 showed Slotkin up two points (48 percent to 46 percent).
In Pennsylvania’s toss-up race, a Quinnipiac University poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey up 3 points over Republican Dave McCormick (50 percent to 47 percent). It surveyed 2,186 likely voters from October 24 to 28.
In Wisconsin, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin was up two points (49 percent to 47 percent) over Republican Eric Hovdein in the CNN/SSRS poll, which surveyed 736 likely voters.
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Trump is expected to win Florida and Texas, but Democrats have invested in the Senate races in those two states as Montana appeared increasingly challenging for Tester. Still, Republicans Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas are still leading most polls.
The latest Florida poll, conducted by Florida Atlantic University among 897 likely voters from October 19 to 27, showed Scott up 4 points over former Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (50 percent to 46 percent). In Texas, a Cygnal poll, conducted among 600 likely voters from October 26 to 28, showed Cruz up 4 points against Representative Colin Allred.
Nebraska is also more competitive than expected, as independent Dan Osborn has seen a number of tight polls against Republican Senator Deb Fischer. Osborn has not said whether he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans if elected.
Fischer holds a 2.2-point lead in 538’s average, but a YouGov/Economist poll showed her up 7 points (50 percent to 43 percent). It polled 1,202 likely voters from October 21 to 28.
Democrats have built more comfortable leads in Arizona and Nevada despite the two being toss-ups in the presidential race.
Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego holds a 6.4-point lead over Republican Kari Lake in Arizona, while Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by 7.4 points in Nevada, according to 538’s averages.
Democrats are expected to easily win Senate races in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Washington. Maryland, Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia are viewed as closer, but Democrats still have double-digit leads in those states.
Independents Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, both of whom caucus with Democrats, are also expected to easily win reelection.
Republicans are expected to hold onto seats in Indiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming without much worry. The West Virginia seat being vacated by Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is expected to flip to Republicans, as the state is one of the most conservative in the nation.