Jack Ciattarelli’s chances of winning NJ governor’s race over Mikie Sherrill: Polls

Jack Ciattarelli Holds Election Night Rally

New Jersey voters hit the polls on Tuesday and cast their ballots in the state’s primary races ahead of this year’s gubernatorial election.

Jack Ciattarelli, a former New Jersey state representative and one-time critic turned supporter of President Donald Trump, won the Republican Party‘s nomination for governor. On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill snagged the party’s nomination.

With primaries in the rearview mirror, New Jersey’s gubernatorial race kicks into high gear, with Sherrill pulling out all the stops to keep the governor’s seat in Democrats‘ hands and Ciattarelli leveraging Trump’s backing to flip it red.

Newsweek reached out to Ciattarelli and Sherrill’s campaigns for comment via LinkedIn and email, respectively, on Tuesday.

Why It Matters

New Jersey is among only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year, alongside Virginia, meaning November’s election in the Garden State will be one of the first and earliest tests of Trump’s agenda.

With New Jersey’s incumbent Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, being term-limited, both parties see the contest as a crucial bellwether, especially after a competitive 2021 governor’s election in which Ciattarelli lost to Murphy by a narrow margin.

Supporters await New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli at his watch party on November 2, 2021, in Bridgewater, New Jersey. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

What To Know

According to the Associated Press, Ciattarelli clinched the GOP nomination for governor at 8:17 p.m. ET Tuesday and Sherrill was projected to win the Democratic nomination at 8:39 p.m.

New Jersey has voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1988. Although Trump lost the state in November, he significantly narrowed the gap between the two parties, losing to then-Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by less than 6 percentage points.

As Newsweek reported this month, it was the best showing by a GOP presidential nominee in two decades. By comparison, Joe Biden won New Jersey by 16 percentage points in the 2020 election.

Ciattarelli, who won Trump’s endorsement in May, also got some good news in a recent poll published shortly before Tuesday’s primaries. According to SurveyUSA, Ciattarelli and Sherrill are viewed favorably by a near-equal percentage of New Jersey voters.

The SurveyUSA poll found that 40 percent of Garden State voters have a favorable view of Ciattarelli, while 41 percent view Sherrill favorably. But there’s a larger gap between the two candidates when it comes to their unfavorables, with 29 percent of voters having an unfavorable view of Sherrill, compared to 36 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of Ciattarelli.

What People Are Saying

The Democratic National Committee, in an emailed statement to Newsweek from Chair Ken Martin: “Congratulations to New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill and to New Jersey Democrats up and down the ballot who are stepping up to fight for families across the Garden State.

“The DNC is all hands on deck to ensure the Governor’s office and Assembly remain blue in November. We will do everything in our power to unite the party and defeat Republican extremists like Jack Ciattarelli who want to rubber stamp Donald Trump’s cost-hiking agenda and sell out working-class Americans. In 2025, Democrats have overwhelmingly won and overperformed in special and off-year elections.

Concluding, Martin said, “We’ll continue that trend in New Jersey by organizing in every corner of the state, investing strategically, and working with our allies on the ground to elect more Democrats who will stand up to the Trump disaster and deliver for working families.”

Sherrill’s campaign said in a statement, in part: “Let’s be clear about the two visions in this race: I am ready to stand up to an extreme Washington that doesn’t have New Jersey’s best interests at heart. Jack has already surrendered to them. It’s our duty to meet the moment and live up to our state’s motto of liberty and prosperity, because a Trump yes man like Jack Ciattarelli in Trenton will threaten it all.”

She added: “While Jack is for Trump, I am for New Jersey. A New Jersey where housing is affordable so our kids can afford to live here, middle-class families can buy a home, and our seniors can afford to stay. A New Jersey where we finally take control of our energy future, and slash the cost of utilities. A New Jersey where a woman’s right to an abortion is non-negotiable, and we respect the rule of law, due process, and the Constitution.”

Trump wrote on Truth Social over the weekend: “The Great State of New Jersey has a very important Primary coming up on Tuesday. Get Out and Vote for Jack Ciattarelli, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement! His Opponents are going around saying they have my Endorsement, which is not true, I don’t even know who they are! We can’t play games when it comes to Elections, and New Jersey is a very important State that we must WIN. The whole World is watching. Vote for Jack Ciattarelli to, MAKE NEW JERSEY GREAT AGAIN!”

What Happens Next

The general election in New Jersey’s governor’s race is on November 4. In addition to Sherrill and Ciattarelli, five third-party or independent candidates are also running for the seat.

Mikie Sherrill
Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey can be seen questioning witnesses during a House hearing on February 28, 2023, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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