Vice President Kamala Harris holds an 8-point lead over former President Donald Trump among swing voters, according to Impact Social, a firm specializing in social media sentiment analysis.
Analyzing 40,000 online discussions, the report shows Harris’s lead reflects a slight preference among independents, driven more by concerns over Trump’s style than strong support for Harris.
“On the plus side for Harris, we have consistently observed a small but notable amount of discussion among right-leaning swing voters suggesting they are leaning towards her, while similar conversations in favor of Trump have been scarce,” the report states.
Covering sentiment from October 31 to November 4, 2024, the report notes Harris’s net sentiment score at -9—a marked improvement from earlier in the race. If this trend holds, Impact Social predicts Harris could become the next president.
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“Our conclusion is simple: independents prefer Harris, and if this is reflected in turnout, she will be America’s 47th president,” the report predicts.
Impact Social indicates that Harris’s recent messaging about the risks of a Trump presidency has resonated with swing voters, who describe Trump as a “danger to democracy,” a “fascist,” and accuse him of promoting a “dark agenda.”
“This has been achieved by shifting from the ‘joy’ strategy to emphasizing the perceived dangers of a Trump presidency,” the report explains.
Trump’s stances on issues like abortion, immigration, and transgender rights have also contributed to a negative perception among independents.
However, the report acknowledges Trump is in a slightly better position than four years ago, making the “lesser of two evils” choice even more pronounced due to Harris’s own unpopularity. While most experts agree that Trump had an underwhelming TV debate performance against Harris in September, his polling numbers have jumped 10 points since the televised event.
Despite Harris’s edge in sentiment, Impact Social raises concerns about turnout, drawing comparisons to the 2020 election, where swing voters chose Joe Biden more out of aversion to Trump than support for him.
“Back in 2020 we stated the polls were wrong, there would be no Biden landslide as swing voters didn’t really like him, they just hated Trump,” the report reads.
Harris faces a similar challenge, as her modest lead relies heavily on anti-Trump sentiment rather than strong enthusiasm for her.
The report concludes that Harris’s lead may be misleading, calling it “an illusion.” Impact Social warns, “Harris is not preferred to Trump; she is simply disliked less,” highlighting that for many independents, this election is a “lesser of two evils” choice, casting doubt on whether her lead will turn into actual votes.