With just a few days to go until the U.S. Election on November 5, Newsweek has broken down what the polls are saying in each swing state.
This year’s race is extremely tight, with victory in sight for either the Republican nominee Donald Trump or the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
The seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are likely to be the ones to decide which one wins a term in the White House and the founder of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, has forecast that Trump could win every one of them. Here is what the polls say.
Arizona Polls
As of Sunday, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has Trump ahead, with 48.7 percent, over Harris’ 46.8 percent, with the latest three polls putting Trump in the lead as well.
Similarly, the Trafalgar Group, a political consulting firm, found Trump had 48 percent support and Harris had 46 percent out of the 1,094 respondents who were questioned between October 24 and 26. The survey has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Trump enjoyed the exact same 2-point lead (48 percent – 46 percent) in a poll conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph.
The UK-based market and research company polled 7,362 swing state voters across all seven swing states between October 20 and 22. Redfield and Wilton Strategies does not disclaim its margin of error but it says: “In every state polled the candidates are either tied or the lead for either Trump or Harris is within the margin of error.”
Marist College, which conducted its latest survey a little earlier this month, between October 17 and 22, also has Trump in the lead, but with a 1-point margin (50 percent to 49 percent). Some 1,193 people were questioned and the margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.
Georgia Polls
FiveThirtyEight averages Trump’s lead in Georgia at 48.6 percent as of Monday, and while the latest two polls also gave Trump the lead, a third tied him and Harris.
Out of the 1,087 people questioned by the Trafalgar Group, between October 24 and October 26, 48 percent said they would vote for Trump and 46 percent said they would vote for Harris. The margin of error is 2.9 percent.
In a swing states poll carried out by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, in which 1,168 people were questioned, Trump had 48 percent over Harris’ 46 percent.
But Marist College found support for both candidates even, with 49 percent backing each one—out of the 1,193 people surveyed between October 17 and October 22. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
AP
Michigan Polls
Harris has a razor-thin lead in Michigan, according to FiveThirtyEight, with 47.6 percent over Trump’s 47.3 percent but the most recent three polls had Trump in the lead for two of them and another tie.
Political consulting firm Insider Advantage found that 48.4 percent of the 800 likely voters it interviewed between October 26 and October 17, supported Trump while 47.4 percent supported Harris. The poll has a margin of error of 3.46 percent.
Conservative-leaning polling organization Patriot Polling gave Trump a 50 percent lead, over Harris’ 49 percent, after questioning 796 registered voters between October 24 and October 26. The margin of error is three percentage points.
Meanwhile, Redfield and Wilton Strategies‘ swing state poll, which surveyed 1,115 people for its Michigan research, had Trump and Harris coming out even with 47 percent.
Nevada Polls
FiveThirtyEight has given Trump a 0.2 percentage point margin, with a tiny lead of 47.5 percent over Harris’ 47.3 percent, as of Sunday. Like Michigan, two out of the last three polls had Trump ahead, and candidates came out even in the third.
Redfield and Wilton Strategies put Trump at 47 percent and Harris at 46 percent, after interviewing 540 likely voters, while OnMessage gave Trump 50 percent and Harris 46 percent, after questioning 600 people between October 19 and 22. The margin of error is four percentage points.
Trump and Harris came out with 48 percent in InsiderAdvantage’ssurvey carried out between October 19 and 20 when 800 likely voters were surveyed. The margin of error is 3.52 percent.
North Carolina Polls
Trump is also in the lead in North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages, with 48.4 percent over Harris’ 47.1 percent as of Monday. Trump also had the lead in each of the three most recent polls.
Emerson College questioned 950 likely voters between October 21 and 22 and found that Trump came out on top with 50 percent, while Harris was 2 points behind with 48 percent. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.
Likewise, Trump had 50 percent over Harris’ 48 percent in a Marist College poll carried out between October 17 and 22 of 1,226 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.6 percent.
In the Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, in which 679 likely voters were surveyed, Trump was 1 percentage point ahead of Harris with 48 percent.
Pennsylvania Polls
Trump has another razor-thin lead in FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate of Pennsylvania’s polls – 48 percent over Harris’ 47.7 percent as of Monday. Harris was in the lead by 1 point in one of the most recent three polls.
InsiderAdvantage, which questioned 800 likely voters between October 26 and 27, found Trump had 48 percent over Harris’ 47 percent while EmersonCollege, which questioned 860 likely voters between October 21 and 22, gave Trump 51 percent over Harris’ 49 percent. The margins of error for each poll are 3.46 percent and 3.4 percent respectively.
In the Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, which saw 1.586 likely voters questioned, Harris was in the lead with 48 percent while Trump had 47 percent.
Wisconsin Polls
Harris has another tiny lead in Wisconsin, with 47.9 percent over Trump’s 47.8 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, as of Monday, but Trump had the lead in two of the most recent polls on the state.
Suffolk University, in partnership with USA Today, surveyed 500 likely voters between October 20 and 23 and found 48 percent supported Trump and 47 percent supported Harris. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.
Out of the 800 likely voters that Emerson College questioned between October 21 and 22, 50 percent backed Trump and 49 percent backed Harris. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.
In the Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, which surveyed 557 people between October 20 and 22, Harris had 49 percent over Trump’s 47 percent.
Do polls matter?
Both candidates have enjoyed marginal leads throughout this election after Harris closed the significantly wider gap between Trump and former Democratic candidate President Joe Biden.
University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss told Newsweek that polling was “going to bounce up and down a bit between now and Election Day.”
He said: “The temptation will be to try to attach interpretations to every swing up or down in a candidate’s polling, but most of the time, short-term fluctuations in polling are not meaningful. Poll respondents do not make their decisions in exactly the same way voters ultimately do.”