The first round of the NBA Play-In Tournament concludes in Sacramento on Wednesday night, where the Kings (9) host the Mavericks (10) in a matchup between two teams that struggled down the stretch this year.
The Kings (40-42) went just 5-5 over their final 10 regular-season games. In fact, this team won just eight eight of its last 22 regular-season games after it improved to 32-28 with a March 3 victory over the Mavericks.
The Mavericks (39-43), as you may have heard, have had one of the most tumultous seasons in NBA history.
This isn’t the place to rehash the baffling Luka Doncic trade and its fallout. We should, however, note here that since sending him to LA, the Mavericks have gone just 13-20.
Kyrie Irving suffered a season-ending torn ACL in early March, and former Laker Anthony Davis only managed to play in nine of the Mavs’ 33 post-trade games.
The winner of tonight’s game will face Memphis on Friday night for the 8-seed and the opportunity to take on top-seeded Oklahoma City in the first round.
Mavericks vs. Kings Odds: Spread, ML, Total
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| DAL spread | +4.5 (-110) | +5 (-112) | +5 (-110) |
| SAC spread | -4.5 (-110) | -5 (-108) | -5 (-110) |
| DAL ML | +160 | +180 | +170 |
| SAC ML | -192 | -215 | -205 |
| Total | 213 (o-110; u-110) | 213.5 (o-114; u-106) | 214 (o-110; u-110) |
How to Watch Mavericks vs. Kings
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN
Best Mavericks vs. Kings Player Prop Bets
J. Valanciunas 11+ Pts + Rebs (-120 at DraftKings) — 1 unit
Sacramento’s veteran backup center has been productive when called upon this year. He has averaged 8.7 points and 7 rebounds in 16.9 minutes per game in 32 regular-season appearances for the Kings, who acquired him from Washington in February.
As long as he’s on the court for around 15 minutes or more tonight against an imposing Mavericks front line featuring Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, Valanciunas should have little trouble clearing this line.
Keep in mind that Valanciunas had at least nine points in all four games he played this year vs. Dallas — two as a Wizard and two as a King — and he also had at least five boards in all four of those games.
With P+R totals of 14 (WAS vs. DAL, 12/5), 14 (WA vs. DAL, 1/27), 21 (SAC vs. DAL, 2/10) and 23 (SAC vs. DAL, 3/3), Valanciunas was extremely effective, even though he played 20-plus minutes in just one of those contests.
His line is likely low in this game because his minutes decreased significantly in the final weeks of the season (he played 12 minutes or more in just one of Sacramento’s last five games).
I nevertheless expect Kings coach Doug Christie to lean on Valanciunas tonight to keep Davis, Gafford and Likely off the glass, and that should lead to this bet cashing.
Mavericks vs. Kings Prediction, Best Bets
We shouldn’t exactly be shocked if coach Jason Kidd rallies the much-maligned-but-scrappy Mavs to an upset win tonight, especially if Davis is at his best.
But the most likely scenario is a comfortable Kings win. The home crowd, the shotmaking of Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan and the rebounding of Domantas Sabonis (the league leader with 13.9 rebounds per game) should add up to more than enough to overcome this shorthanded Mavs team.
Dallas not only lost four of its last five regular-season games, it was thumped by at least 15 points in each of those losses.
Heat vs. Bulls Best Bets:
- Kings -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings) — 1 unit
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