The good news about this year’s mostly chalky opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament is that all eight Sweet 16 matchups feature two strong teams going head-to-head.
While every game in this round offers plenty to watch, it’s the one that oddsmakers see as the most lopsided — 4-seed Arizona vs. 1-seed Duke in the East Region — that features arguably the best storyline.
Everything superstar Cooper Flagg and the highly touted Blue Devils do is headline news right now, but there’s a particularly juicy angle in Wildcats vs. Blue Devils: the 10th Caleb Love vs. Duke matchup of the former UNC Tar Heel’s career.
Love, of course, spent three years in Chapel Hill, where he faced Duke seven times, before transferring to Tucson for his final two seasons.
Back in 2022, he memorably led Carolina to wins over Duke on both senior night at Cameron Indoor in Coach K’s final game in Durham and in the Final Four a few weeks later in Mike Krzyzewski’s last game as coach of the Blue Devils.
As a Wildcat, this is his third matchup vs. Jon Scheyer and Duke. Love and Arizona beat the Blue Devils in Durham early in 2023-204, but lost to them 69-55 at home early this season.
How to Watch Arizona vs. Duke
- Tipoff: 9:39 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
Arizona vs. Duke Odds: Spread, ML, Total
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| ARI spread | +9.5 (-115) | +9.5 (-112) | +9 (-105) |
| DUKE spread | -9.5 (-105) | -9.5 (-108) | -9 (-115) |
| ARI ML | +390 | +330 | +375 |
| DUKE ML | -520 | -430 | -500 |
| Total | 153.5 (o-110; u-110) | 153.5 (o-114; u-106) | 153.5 (o-110; u-110) |
Best Player Prop Bets for Arizona vs. Duke
How to Bet Caleb Love Player Props vs. Duke
Below is a look at how Love’s points, rebounds and assists are priced at a couple sportsbooks.
Caleb Love Points Props vs. Duke
- FanDuel: 16.5 — Over -118; Under -110
- bet365: 17.5 — Over -115; Under -115
Caleb Love Assists Props vs. Duke
- FanDuel: 3.5 — Over -104; Under -128
- bet365: 3.5 — Over -105; Under -125
Whether you’re a Carolina fan or not, it’s tempting to take Love to go off tonight. He scored 18 or more points against Duke in four of his first five career matchups against this team back in 2021 and 2022 (including a total of 50 in Carolina’s aforementioned historic wins over Coach K).
Those games are ancient history at this point, though.
Love struggled against Duke not only in his final year with UNC in 2023 (23 points combined on 8-of-27 FG shooting across two games), but in each of the last two years as a Wildcat. After leading UNC to a 4-1 record vs Duke as a freshman and sophomore, his teams are 1-3 in his last four games vs. the Blue Devils (0-2 with UNC in 2023 and 1-1 with Arizona in ’23-24 and ’24-25).
Love scored just eight points on 3-for-13 shooting in Arizona’s early-season loss to Duke this year. He was only slightly better (11 points on 3-for-10 shooting) when these teams met in 2023-24, though Arizona did win that one.
Love to go under 17.5 points (-115 at bet365 — 0.5 units) is the smart play in this game, as Duke’s outstanding defense will make it tough for him to get good looks. He’s good value to go over 3.5 assists (-104 at FD — 1 unit), though.
Expect the Blue Devils to force someone besides Love beat them, especially early — and keep in mind that Love has notched seven total assists in two games vs. Duke in his Wildcats tenure.
How to Bet Cooper Flagg Player Props vs. Arizona
For all the buzz about Love, Flagg is once again going to be in the spotlight. Here’s how his points and rebounds props are currently listed:
Cooper Flagg Points Props vs. Arizona
- FanDuel: 21.5 — Over -106; Under -122
- bet365: 20.5 — Over -115; Under -115
Cooper Flagg Rebounds Props vs. Arizona
- FanDuel: 7.5 — Over -122; Under -108
- bet365: 7.5 — Over -125; Under -105
Flagg would be a solid bet to go over this rebounds number at a price closer to -110 or so. But at shorter than -120, that prop is not tempting. And Duke is just too balanced to justify a play on Flagg’s points prop at these numbers.
Tyrese Proctor Over 14.5 Points (-110 at bet365) — 2 units
Proctor was lights-out vs. Baylor, and he’s getting too many good looks not to stick with him vs. Arizona. He has had at least 10 field-goal attempts in six of Duke’s last seven games, and he’s made at least six three-pointers in three straight games.
Even if he cools off a bit, 15 points is well within reach for Proctor, who is just Duke’s third-leading scorer but its top 3-point shooter. It only helps his case that Arizona has struggled at 3-point defense all season.
Also consider placing a half-unit on Proctor to make four threes or more (+155 at bet365) after shooting 19-of-30 from downtown in his last three games.
Arizona vs. Duke Prediction, Best Bets
The 89-66 final score of Duke’s win over Baylor last Sunday speaks for itself. At the same time, that margin arguably fails to do justice to how impressive the Blue Devils looked.
Oddsmakers certainly took notice, as the pre-tournament favorite’s national title odds are now just longer than +200 at most sportsbooks (+210 at DK, +220 at FD), while second-favorite Florida is now as long as +440 at FanDuel after squeaking past UConn in the second round. The Gators were shorter than +400 across the board before the Big Dance got underway.
Last Sunday, Duke took just 45 field goal attempts (compared to a whopping 68 FGA by Baylor) and managed to turn those into 89 points thanks to white-hot 64 percent shooting from the floor.
This year’s Blue Devils are good enough defensively to win games comfortably on so-so offensive nights. If they maintain anything resembling the level of offensive efficiency we saw last Sunday, they might roll all the way to San Antonio.
The possibility of a huge Caleb Love night is a real one, but Arizona’s poor 3-point defense — the Wildcats are No. 276 nationally in opposing 3-point rate (41.5) and No. 155 in 3-point percentage D (33.5) — makes it hard to see this being a close game for 40 minutes.
Another reason to like Duke to pull away and cover is the fact that offensively, Arizona is better inside the arc than outside it. That is a bad recipe against an opponent with as much size as the Blue Devils, as every member of Scheyer’s rotation is at least 6-foot-5.
Arizona vs. Duke Best Bets
- Duke -9 (-115 at bet365) — 1 unit
- Duke TT over 81.5 (-115 at DK) — 0.5 units
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