Former Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, defeated Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, bringing the governorship back into Democratic control. The Associated Press called the race at 8 p.m. ET, just one hour after polls closed.
At the time the race was called, Spanberger led with 54.9% of the vote to Winsome-Earles’ 49.4% with 35% of the vote reported. With 47% of votes reporting, Spanberger stretched her lead to 55.3% to 44.4%.
Why It Matters
The Virginia gubernatorial race served as a key bellwether for the mood of the electorate ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, when Democrats are hoping to flip seats nationwide. Spanberger, who served in Congress from 2018 through 2024, cast herself as a more centrist Democrat on the campaign trail, while Earle-Sears aligned closer to President Donald Trump.
Spanberger’s victory could boost Democrats’ optimism about the midterm elections, as the party has continued to face questions about its future following former Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss last November.
What To Know
Her victory brings the seat back into Democratic control for the first time in four years. In 2021, incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin flipped the seat.
Spanberger will be the first woman to serve as governor of Virginia.
National politics loomed over the race. The ongoing government shutdown and President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the federal government were particularly important issues in Northern Virginia’s D.C. suburbs, which are home to a large concentration of federal workers.
Virginia was once a swing state but has drifted toward Democrats over the past few decades.
Trump, however, managed to narrow his margin in Virginia in 2024 compared to his 2020 performance. Five years ago, he lost the state by about 10 points to President Joe Biden. Last November, Harris carried the state by fewer than six points.
Republicans sought to tie Spanberger to the Democrats’ attorney general nominee Jay Jones, whose polling dipped after text messages appearing to show him suggesting political violence against a Republican lawmaker leaked. Earle-Sears also attacked Spanberger over her support for transgender rights.
Why Didn’t Glenn Youngkin Seek Reelection?
Youngkin was ineligible to run for reelection again due to term limits that prevent a governor from being elected to two consecutive terms in office.
He won in 2021 by just under 2 percentage points, defying the state’s political lean. He has remained fairly popular in office—an Emerson College poll released just days before the election showed him with a +10 approval (49 percent approving to 39 percent disapproving). It surveyed 880 likely voters from October 30 to 31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Jeff E. Schapiro of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote in an October 29 update: “A Spanberger victory—consistently suggested by independent political polling that occasionally has her leading Earle-Sears by double-digits, a 2-to-1 advantage in fundraising, organizational and message discipline, as well as the counter-cyclical quirkiness of Virginia gubernatorial politics—would, as a rejection of Trump in a suburban-dominated, two-party-competitive state, not be interpreted only as a mini-referendum on the Republican president.”
Republican Winsome Earle-Sears wrote in a Fox News opinion piece published Monday: “Throughout this campaign I have met parents, small business owners, veterans and young people who are all asking for the same thing. They want leaders who listen, who lead with principle and who remember that common sense still matters. They do not want mealy-mouthed politicians.”
Democrat Abigail Spanberger said during a campaign event: “When the polls close, we will get the results of this election. This journey has been an incredible one because I have traveled all across Virginia, meeting Virginians, talking to Virginians. Listening to their challenges, their dreams, their concerns and their worries.”
What Happens Next
Spanberger will take office in January 2026.