The Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup is light on playoff implications.
There’s nevertheless plenty to watch for tonight, especially on the player props front, as the Cowboys (3-5-1) visit the Raiders (2-7).
Will Raiders rookie RB Ashton Jeanty be able to have his breakout game vs. the porous Dallas run D on national TV?
Can Dak Prescott and the ‘Boys bounce back after struggling offensively in losses to the Broncos in Week 8 and the Cardinals in Week 9?
Below, we’ll lay out the case for Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson to find the end zone and the over on Javonte Williams’ rushing yardage.
Javonte Williams Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
With all five Cowboys starters on the O-line healthy and RB Javonte Williams fresh off a well-timed bye, this is a great spot for him to have a solid night. Dallas center Cooper Beebe and right guard Tyler Booker have missed three games apiece, and left tackle Tyler Guyton and left guard Tyler Smith have both missed one game this year.
Despite the injuries, Dallas is top-10 in the NFL in yards per carry, with 4.8, and Williams is having by far the best season of his five-year career. Williams enters this game top-10 in the league in yards per carry (5.2), rushing success rate (58.3), rushing first downs (40) and yards per game (79.6).
The Raiders’ run D has been solid this season, but two of their last three opponents (the Chiefs in Week 7 and the Jaguars in Week 9) managed to run for over 150 yards. In his last game before the bye, Williams had a solid night (15 carries for 83 yards) that was even more impressive than it looks at first glance. His 5.5 yards per carry on a substantial workload in that game came despite Dallas falling into a 24-7 hole early in the third quarter.
We’re rolling the dice backing Williams against a defense that just held Denver to 84 yards rushing on 27 carries, but I trust Williams — who has run for at least 76 yards in six of nine games this year — to have a big night.
It helps the case for Williams that he’s A) averaging 2.9 yards after contact per rush, which is second behind only Jonathan Taylor and B) is expected to be in a running-back friendly game script, as the the Cowboys are 3.5-point road favorites against a team that has lost seven of its last eight since a stunning Week 1 win in New England.
Best Cowboys-Raiders ATTD Bet: J. Ferguson (+165 at FD) — 0.5 units
Cowboys WRs George Pickens (6 TDs in nine games) and CeeDee Lamb (1 TD in six games) are certainly bigger names than tight end Jake Ferguson, but it’s the latter who’s been easily Dak Prescott’s most popular red zone target. Ferguson is tied with Pickens for the team lead with six TD receptions, and his red-zone usage makes him a great bet tonight, especially at significantly longer odds than either Lamb or Pickens. The former is +115 or shorter at most sportsbooks to find the end zone tonight, while the latter is +145 or shorter.
Ferguson has received a team-high 14 (28 percent share) of the Cowboys’ 50 total red-zone targets, well ahead of both Pickens (10 targets/20 percent share) and Lamb (5 targets/10 percent share). The third-year tight end has come through with five red-zone TDs, including 4 from inside the 10-yard line.
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