The chances that U.S. President Donald Trump will be impeached have surged after the publication of more files related to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.
On Wednesday, U.S. lawmakers released more than 20,000 pages of documents connected to Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died by suicide in a New York jail in 2019 while awaiting sex trafficking charges. Some of the documents mentioned Trump.
Following this release, according to online gambling website Polymarket, a platform where users can place bets on the likelihood of world events, the chances that Trump will be impeached by the end of 2026 increased from 5 percent on Wednesday to 15 percent on Friday.
Newsweek reached out to the White House to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
Documents and filed related to Epstein continue to cause issues for the Trump administration as bipartisan groups have called for greater transparency in the case and the further publication of documents and evidence in the government’s possession.
Trump has consistently denied any wrongdoing in connection to Epstein, and has said their friendship ended in the early 2000s. But the recent release of thousands of documents has brought fresh scrutiny to the president’s relationship with Epstein.
What To Know
The betting odds show that the chances of Trump being impeached have risen by 10 percent in two days. However, these odds are still low and there have been no serious calls for Trump to be impeached.
It comes after the new Epstein documents included emails between Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell in which Epstein called Trump “that dog that hasn’t barked.” In an email to author Michael Wolff, Epstein said Trump “knew about the girls as he asked Ghislaine to stop.”
Trump was impeached twice during his first presidency. In both cases, he was acquitted by the U.S. Senate. Serious attempts to impeach the president might undermine his authority.
Meanwhile, Trump’s handling of the Epstein files has created polling issues for the President. Harry Enten, CNN data analyst, said on Thursday that the Epstein case is the president’s “worst issue by far.”
“Republicans who approve of Trump’s job as president—87 percent. That is basically in line with the long term-average, 85, 90, 95 percent,” he said. “But look at the Trump administration’s job on the Epstein case. Just 45 percent of Republicans—less than half of Republicans—are even buying what the administration is telling.”
Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. said Trump impeachment process would only happen if Democrats win in the 2026 midterm elections.
“The key is the 2026 midterms,” he said. “If the GOP loses the House, Democrats will start a third Trump impeachment process. If they lose the Senate too, that process will be completed. So, over the next year, the president will do all he can, by fair means or foul, to ensure that doesn’t happen: the ‘cleaner’ the election, the greater the chance of impeachment.”
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in response to the newly released documents: “The Democrats are trying to bring up the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax again because they’ll do anything at all to deflect on how badly they’ve done on the Shutdown, and so many other subjects. Only a very bad, or stupid, Republican would fall into that trap.
“The Democrats cost our Country $1.5 Trillion Dollars with their recent antics of viciously closing our Country, while at the same time putting many at risk—and they should pay a fair price. There should be no deflections to Epstein or anything else, and any Republicans involved should be focused only on opening up our Country, and fixing the massive damage caused by the Democrats!”
House Oversight Committee Ranking Member Robert Garcia, a California Democrat, said in a statement: “The more Donald Trump tries to cover up the Epstein files, the more we uncover. These latest emails and correspondence raise glaring questions about what else the White House is hiding and the nature of the relationship between Epstein and the President.”
What Happens Next
The House of Representatives is set to vote soon on whether to publicly release the full set of Epstein-related government records after a petition to force a vote surpassed the required 218-signature threshold on Wednesday.