Western countries could exploit weak points in supply chains for many of Russia’s advanced fighter jets, including by tightening up sanctions as Ukraine strikes Russia’s industrial facilities, according to a new report.
Despite a powerful domestic defense industry, Moscow has a “high level of dependence” on imported materials and parts to keep producing its combat aircraft, Jack Watling and Nikolay Staykov, writing for the United Kingdom-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, will say in an analysis seen by Newsweek, to be published on Tuesday.
Russia is “vulnerable” to disruption and delays in pumping out and maintaining aircraft, which fresh Western sanctions could target, the authors say.
Russia has leaned heavily on its air power throughout its nearly four-year full-scale invasion of Ukraine, although Western observers have deemed its performance underwhelming; aircraft have often hammered Ukraine with destructive aerial attacks. But Russia’s air force has sustained relatively few blows compared to the country’s ground forces, chewed up in drawn-out assaults in eastern Ukraine.
The country’s Sukhoi design bureau is responsible for producing much of Russia’s in-service air power, including the Kremlin’s rarely seen Su-57 stealth fighter. Moscow-headquartered Sukhoi merged with several other defense companies under the broader United Aircraft Corporation in 2022.
The RUSI report referred to the Sukhoi aircraft still in production, namely the Su-30MK, Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-35S and Su-57. Moscow also operates other types of aircraft, including its Tu-95 strategic bombers and the Il-78 transport aircraft.
According to the analysts, Russia has struggled to find substitutes for the materials and tools it imports from abroad, and is only increasing its reliance on imports in some areas. Nations previously interested in buying Russian aircraft have opted for Chinese or NATO offerings instead, like India choosing France’s Rafale jet.
“It is necessary for NATO members to consider their offer to compete with Russia and more importantly China in those countries that must soon look to replace ageing combat air fleets,” the experts say in their analysis.
Russia’s combat aircraft cannot match the capabilities of NATO or Chinese counterparts, the authors write, but “they still serve important battlefield functions such that their prevalence and continued development should be a concern for NATO.”
Sanctions targeting suppliers further down the supply chain to Sukhoi, if properly executed, could cut Russia off from key equipment sources in Europe, according to the RUSI report.
The United States, the U.K. and the European Union have slapped Russia with various sanctions packages over its war in Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump, apparently frustrated with the glacial progress of peace talks over Ukraine, hit Russia’s two largest oil companies with sanctions last month as the EU unveiled a nineteenth sanctions package. Trump has also imposed additional tariffs on India due to its purchases of Russian oil.
Ukraine is also likely to home in on Russia’s military facilities vital for propping up aerospace manufacturing as part of its strike campaign on high-value Russian assets, the analysts will say. This “will present opportunities for Ukraine’s international partners to disrupt Russia’s ability to acquire replacement machine tools,” the RUSI report reads.
Kyiv has persistently targeted various types of sites linked to Moscow’s military industry, from fuel depots to refineries funding its war effort to chemical factories grinding out supplies for ammunition.
Western nations could also encourage Russia’s top experts to leave the country, siphoning away the country’s expertise, the report says. Casting doubt on whether the jets will be reliable could ultimately wreak havoc on sales often worth hundreds of millions—or billions—of dollars.