Republican Vivek Ramaswamy held a lead over potential Democratic rivals Amy Acton and former U.S. House Representative Tim Ryan in a new poll of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial race from Emerson College released Friday.
Daniel Birdsong, professor of political science at the University of Dayton, told Newsweek that Republicans will have an advantage in Ohio, generally speaking—but that the race could still be competitive.
An Acton spokesperson raised concerns about the poll’s methodology in a statement to Newsweek, saying that “every other poll has consistently shown Amy Acton has a strong path to victory and is the best candidate to beat Vivek Ramaswamy.”
A Ramaswamy spokesperson told Newsweek that polls are “showing him with a huge lead over any potential opponent.”
Newsweek also reached out to Ryan for comment via X.
Why It Matters
Ohio, once the nation’s premier battleground state, has shifted hard to the right over the past decade. But Democrats are hoping to make a comeback in the Buckeye State in the midterms, when President Donald Trump‘s sliding approval rating is fueling hopes of a stronger national environment for a blue wave. But winning in Ohio won’t be easy—the state backed Trump by double digits last November and has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006.
Acton, who served as the former director of the Ohio Department of Health, is already in the race to replace outgoing Republican Governor Mike DeWine, while Ryan, who, represented a Youngstown-based district in Congress for two decades, is also viewed as a potential candidate, though he has not formally launched his campaign.
On the Republican side, Ramaswamy, who rose to national prominence during his 2024 presidential campaign, is viewed as a front-runner for the nomination and has received the endorsement of Trump.
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What To Know
The latest Emerson College poll found Ramaswamy with an advantage over both Acton and Ryan. It polled 1,000 registered voters from August 18 to August 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
In a head-to-head against Ryan, Ramaswamy led by about 7 percentage points (48 percent to 41 percent). When paired against Acton, Ramaswamy led by nearly 10 points (48.7 percent to 39.4 percent).
The poll found that 38 percent of respondents view Ramaswamy favorably, while 35 percent view him unfavorably. Acton is viewed favorably by 27 percent of respondents, while 23 percent view her unfavorably. Ryan is viewed favorably by about 31 percent of respondents, while about 25 percent said they viewed him unfavorably.
Birdsong told Newsweek that how competitive the race will be is an “open question.”
“That race is going to be contingent on who Democrats nominate,” he said.
Ramaswamy is likely to be the Republican nominee unless people “really sour on Trump,” he said. If Ryan runs, he could make the race competitive for Democrats as he has already run statewide before and may be able to access fundraising.
Acton has solid favorability ratings but is still unknown to many voters in Ohio, Birdsong said.
An Impact Research poll administered in July pointed to a closer race.
It found Ramaswamy up only one point against Acton (47 percent to 46 percent). It surveyed 800 likely voters from July 24 to July 28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
A Bowling Green State University poll from April showed Ramaswamy with a more comfortable lead over Democratic rivals. He led Acton by about five points (50 percent to 45 percent) and Ryan by seven points (51 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 800 registered voters from April 18 to April 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.08 percentage points.
Ohio, once a swing state, has shifted toward Republicans due to shifts in the more rural, southeastern part of the state, a region that is part of Appalachia. Democrats have also seen narrowing margins in the northeastern area, Birdsong said.
“For Democrats to win back or make inroads back, they need to look at where they’ve lost and perhaps why they’ve lost in those regions. But also, they might start targeting suburban spaces to try to drive turnout…to counterbalance any losses elsewhere,” he said. “Which is easier said than done.”
What People Are Saying
Philip Stein, campaign manager for Acton’s campaign, told Newsweek: “Unlike this badly constructed poll, every other poll has consistently shown Amy Acton has a strong path to victory and is the best candidate to beat Vivek Ramaswamy. Everywhere Amy goes she hears stories of Ohioans ready for change because they’re tired of corporations and billionaires like Vivek Ramaswamy looking out for themselves while the rest of us struggle with rising costs and how to pay the bills.”
Jai Chabria, chief strategist for Ramaswamy’s campaign, told Newsweek: “Vivek has raised $9.7m and his allied Super PAC raised $17m. He has record crowds all over the state, and the GOP is unified. Now, even polls which have been historically unfriendly to Republicans are showing him with a huge lead over any potential opponent. We look forward to a spirited primary between Lobbyist Tim Ryan and Ohio’s Chief Lockdown Officer Amy Acton.”
Birdsong also told Newsweek: “If you’re looking at the governor’s race, who the Democrats nominate, do they have the possibility of running and running well? That’s kind of the open question right now. We don’t have an idea—we have some, maybe that Ryan might run statewide again. And that has the possibility of making it more competitive, but right now, from what I’ve been looking at from 1998 through 2024, we’ve just seen more of trend that gives Republicans generally an advantage.”
What Happens Next
The general election is set for November 3, 2026. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify the race as “Likely Republican.”