The White House has been optimistic about the prospects for an in-person summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping—the first of President Donald Trump‘s second term.
Yet analysts say the Chinese leader is likely holding out for concrete deliverables before agreeing to the high-profile meeting.
All Eyes on Sweden
Trump dramatically escalated the trade war with the world’s second-largest economy in April, rolling out sweeping new tariffs that prompted China to respond with its own export duties and other measures.
While Trump has said that “the confines of a deal” are in place ahead of a third round of talks between U.S. and Chinese negotiators, set for Sweden next week, several contentious issues remain unresolved. These include ongoing U.S. curbs on advanced chip exports to China and persistent geopolitical friction over influence in Asia and Beijing’s threats toward Taiwan.
Newsweek reached out to the White House and Chinese embassy in the U.S. via email for comment.
Europe’s Role
Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, told Newsweek: “A Xi-Trump summit is highly probable, but withholding final approval until Beijing can button down more information and as many concessions as possible is no doubt part of Xi’s calculus.”
“What China and the United States can each negotiate with the EU will also help inform the China-US trade bargain that will be at the heart of any Xi-Trump summit,” Cronin said. After months of efforts with dozens of countries, the White House recently secured a handful of deals with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia, Cronin added.
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Among the deals Trump hopes to achieve is with the EU—a traditionally U.S.-aligned bloc that has become increasingly alienated by Trump’s unpredictable trade moves and controversial domestic policies.
Analysts say China has been seeking to exploit this rift and achieve a thaw in ties with Brussels that has deteriorated over issues like alleged Chinese market flooding with state-subsidized electric vehicles, human rights concerns and Beijing’s support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine.
Sean King, an Asia scholar and senior vice president at Park Strategies, told Newsweek: “PRC [People’s Republic of China] leaders have long seen Europe as a comparatively easier mark, as the continent doesn’t have America’s Asian security concerns and obligations.”
He added, “It’s probably better for Trump to first line up what he says are trade deals with friends and allies before going for the big one with Beijing.”
While European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Beijing this week yielded a memorandum of understanding on climate change and an agreement to facilitate rare-earth exports, analysts note that a fundamental shift in EU-China ties remains elusive.
Timetable Uncertain
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting Malaysia earlier this month for meetings with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, said that “the odds are high” a Trump-Xi summit will take place by the end of the year.
Rosemary Foot, professor and senior research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations, told Newsweek it’s unlikely Xi is counting on Europe as leverage in his dealings with the White House.
“I think that it is to do with China’s more general approach to the Trump administration which is to wait for some intention to offer a serious deliverable from the meeting and perhaps also to paint President Trump as supplicant,” she said.
Trump and Xi last met in 2019 at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.