Mexico and USA have owned the CONCACAF Gold Cup since its inaugural edition back in 1991, with one of these countries winning this competition 16 of the 17 times it has taken place.
With that in mind, it should come as no surprise that oddsmakers expect yet another Mexico vs. USA matchup in the 2025 Gold Cup Final on Sunday. A Mexico-USA final would be the third final between those countries in the last four Gold Cups.
But first, USA has to get through a semifinal matchup tonight against a tricky Guatemala side that stunned Canada in the quarterfinals. FIFA No. 17 Mexico has a tough opponent of its own: Honduras (FIFA No. 75), which is coming off an upset win over Panama in the quarterfinals.
Oddsmakers see Mexico as the heavy favorites in tonight’s game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
Mexico have not trailed at any point through four Gold Cup matches, and they have not been scored on since their tournament-opening 3-2 win over the Dominican Republic on June 15.
Honduras’ Gold Cup run got off to an ugly start in a 6-0 loss to Canada, but Los Catrachos rebounded with group stage wins over El Salvador and Curacao before upsetting Panama in PKs (5-4) last Saturday.
Mexico vs. Honduras Betting Odds
Below are the odds from three top sportsbooks in the two most popular markets for soccer matches: three-way moneyline and match winner.
Gold Cup Semifinal Moneyline Odds: Mexico vs. Honduras
The DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365 three-way moneyline odds below apply to today’s result after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time.
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| Mexico | -275 | -310 | -275 |
| Honduras | +850 | +850 | +800 |
| Draw | +390 | +380 | +375 |
Gold Cup Semifinal Winner Odds: Mexico vs. Honduras
It’s also possible to bet on each team’s odds to advance tonight.
In this market, it doesn’t matter whether the winner comes out on top in 90 minutes, extras or PKs.
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| Mexico | -700 | -850 | -550 |
| Honduras | +450 | +490 | +350 |
How to Watch Mexico vs. Honduras Gold Cup Semifinal
- Kickoff: 10 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1/Univision/TUDN
Mexico vs. Honduras Betting Analysis, Pick
Mexico boasts a couple well-known attacking pieces in AC Milan’s Santiago Gimenez and Fulham’s Raul Jimenez.
To me, though, the biggest question tonight is whether Honduras can crack the Mexico back line, which has combined with keeper Luis Malagon to shut down Suriname, Costa Rica and Saudi Arabia over the last three games.
Mexico’s back-to-back-to-back clean sheets came while holding Saudi Arabia to 0 shots on goal (1 shot attempt), Costa Rica to 0 shots on goal (6 shot attempts) and Suriname to 2 shots on goal (5 attempts).
Honduras has found a way to reach this point of the tournament despite scoring just five goals in four games. The underlying offensive metrics aren’t great, either: Honduras’ 1.39 expected goals (xG) vs. El Salvador marked the only time in this tournament when it had more than 1.25 xG.
Expect Mexico — which has enjoyed 60 percent of possession in all four of its Gold Cup games to date — to control the ball tonight and limit Honduras to few, if any, legit scoring chances.
I’m not convinced Mexico will win this one with much room to spare on the scoreboard, but I do expect El Tri to replicate the formula that got it here.
Mexico vs. Honduras Gold Cup Semifinal Best Bets
The best bets in this game are a parlay of Mexico winning plus the Under (the question is whether to go conservative with Under 3.5 or a bit more aggressive with Under 2.5), and Mexico to Win to Zero.
And based on Mexico’s last three games all featuring two total goals or fewer, Under 2.5 Goals is yet another tempting option, especially at -120.
- Mexico Win To Zero (-120 at DK) — 1 unit
- Under 2.5 Goals (-120 at FD) — 1 unit
- Parlay: Mexico to Win + Under 2.5 (+175 at DK) — 0.5 units
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