Rockets 2026 Futures Odds: Houston To Contend In West After Landing Durant?

The Houston Rockets have moved from one of the contenders in the West in the 2025-26 season to the top contender after the Thunder, per oddsmakers.

Houston, which earned the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with a 52-30 regular-season record in 2024-25, pulled off what will likely go down as the biggest trade of this offseason on Sunday, when it landed superstar Kevin Durant from the Rockets.

Durant will drastically improve the Rockets’ biggest weakness, halfcourt offense, and Houston managed to land him for the price of Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and five second-round draft picks.

Houston’s likely starting five next season of Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Durant, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun will be one of the league’s best. Coach Ime Udoka’s roster also boasts several quality bench pieces including Cam Whitmore, Tari Eason and Steven Adams.

Rockets 2026 NBA Finals Winner Odds

At DraftKings and bet365, only the Thunder have shorter odds than the Rockets to win the 2026 NBA Finals.

FanDuel, on the other hand, gives Houston 9-to-1 odds to capture the Larry O’Brien Trophy next year (longer than OKC’s and Cleveland’s, and tied with New York’s).

Below are how DK, FD and bet365 see the 2026 NBA title race as of June 24, 2025.

According to these odds, Houston should take a massive step forward after last year’s team won 52-win regular season games but was an underdog vs. 7-seed Golden State in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

Rockets 2026 Western Conference Title Odds

In the West, the Rockets are the consensus second-favorite after the Thunder.

In fact, Houston’s odds to win the West are currently substantially shorter than the Lakers’, Timberwolves’ and the Nuggets’. No teams besides those listed below currently features odds shorter than 10-to-1 to win the West next year.

While the Lakers boast two of the biggest stars in the league and the Wolves and Nuggets have combined for three Western Conference Finals appearances in the last two years, Houston’s odds to win the West are by far the shortest of the four biggest perceived threats to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the OKC juggernaut.

Can Durant Lead Houston To 2026 Western Conference Title?

Given the age of the Thunder’s three best players — reigning MVP SGA will turn 27 this summer, Jalen Williams just turned 24 and Chet Holmgren is 23 — plus the fact that no key players for OKC are going anywhere this summer, it still feels like it would take a significant injury or two for the Thunder to take a step back next season.

If that happens, though, Durant and the Rockets could absolutely take advantage.

Houston should remain outstanding defensively and on the glass.

Next year’s roster will also feature plenty of shooting. Fred VanVleet* (37.1 percent career 3-point shooter), Durant (39 percent career 3pt shooter) and Jabari Smith Jr. (34 percent career 3-point shooter) give the Rockets three quality, high-volume shooters around Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.

Assuming Durant, who turns 37 in September, stays healthy, I wouldn’t rule out Houston once again having one of the best regular-season records in the NBA.

But if we’re asking whether this team could top OKC in a playoff series, I’m not yet ready to go quite that far.

While the Rockets have several key young pieces who should play much better next to Durant, we also have to assume that Thunder stars Williams and Holmgren will also take a step forward next season. OKC’s other top complementary pieces, with the exception of 30-year-old Alex Caruso, are all currently 26 or younger.

As of late June, with plenty of roster changes and the NBA Draft yet to take place, the Lakers at +900 (DK) or the Nuggets at +950 (FD) strike me as much better value bets to win the West than the Rockets at +550 (FD) or shorter.

*Houston may or may not retain VanVleet, but for right now, let’s assume he’ll be a Rocket next season.

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