Former Representative Matt Gaetz is speculated to be considering a run in Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial race, but polls suggest other Republicans have carved out early leads.
Newsweek reached out to Gaetz for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Gaetz’s entry into the field could upend the competition for the Republican nomination and test the limits of President Donald Trump‘s power. Gaetz remains popular among many conservatives in the state, but Trump has endorsed Representative Byron Donalds in the race.
The election would give Gaetz a chance to return to politics after leaving Congress to pursue his nomination for U.S. attorney general. Gaetz later withdrew from consideration after accusations of sexual misconduct, which Gaetz has denied, that threatened to tank his confirmation.
What To Know
The latest poll of the Republican field, conducted by the James Madison Institute, did not place Gaetz as a leading figure but highlighted the evolving Republican field where endorsements and name recognition are key factors that could shape the eventual outcome of the race.
The poll, conducted by Targoz Market Research from May 5 to 7, indicated that Florida first lady Casey DeSantis has an early lead with 29 percent, compared to Donalds’ 28 percent and Gaetz’s 10 percent support.
When informed about Trump’s endorsement, however, Donalds’ support grew to 44 percent, while DeSantis’ share of the vote fell to 25 percent.
Donalds is the only Republican to officially declare his intention of running, although rumors continue to swirl about DeSantis and Gaetz, who has not ruled out a run, NBC News reported on Wednesday.
Gaetz’s history as a Trump ally and national media figure on One America News Network could give him a base among the state’s conservative primary base.
A Gaetz victory would be a “long shot,” J. Edwin Benton, professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida, told Newsweek.
Benton said Gaetz would appeal to “very conservative” Republican primary voters, but Donalds is an early favorite due to the Trump endorsement.
“I think that Donalds having been endorsed by President Trump would hurt Gaetz tremendously,” he said.
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Gaetz would bring “excess baggage that no campaign needs,” and accusations of wrongdoing, even without an indictment, would “weigh very heavily against him,” he said.
Polling results and campaign fundraising place Donalds as the current frontrunner. He has reportedly raised more than $14 million, according to NBC News.
An April James Madison Institute poll showed Gaetz winning 8 percent of Republican primary voters, compared to DeSantis’ 28 percent and Donalds’ 22 percent.
Florida has shifted toward Republicans in recent years. Although former President Barack Obama won the state in both of his runs, it has proven elusive for Democrats ever since. Trump carried it in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In his most recent election, he won by 13 points.
Gaetz told The Tampa Bay Times in January he is considering a run.
“I have a compelling vision for the state. I understand how to fix the insurance problem, and it’s not to hand the keys to the state over to the insurance industry. If I run, I would be the most pro-consumer candidate on the Republican side,” he said.
What People Are Saying
Kevin Wagner, associate dean of research and creative achievement at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek: “Matt Gaetz has the advantage of name recognition in Florida, and he would likely have a vocal base of support in a Republican Primary. While he would likely not have a lot of crossover appeal for Democrats, whomever wins the GOP primary will be a strong favorite to win in the general election, as Florida has trended Republican over the last several election cycles.
“There are some challenges for Gaetz. He’s likely to face other popular and well funded Republican candidates. He is also no longer in the office, and the public can quickly forget about leaders who are not in the news. President Trump’s support will be important, and the President has already expressed support for Representative Byron Donalds. Without President Trump’s backing Gaetz would face a difficult challenge as he would need strong support from President Trump’s voters to win.”
Former Representative Matt Gaetz told NBC News: “Casey is right about one thing: It’s very early. Many tectonic plates can shift in Florida in the next year or so.”
What Happens Next
Gaetz has not formally entered the 2026 Florida governor’s race, and no major public poll has included him as a leading candidate. His chances may shift depending on the final field, polling, and the timing of his potential announcement as Florida’s legislative session concludes and candidates make their intentions clear.