NBA Western Conference Playoff Odds: Thunder Favored in Loaded West

The NBA Playoffs are upon us.

Before Tuesday and Wednesday night’s play-in games determine the final two teams in the West, now is a great time to break down the Western Conference futures odds and preview the first-round matchups that are already set.

We know that the Clippers and Nuggets will meet in the 4-5 matchup, with the Lakers taking on the Timberwolves in an intriguing 3-vs.-6 battle.

The play-in games featuring Memphis (8) vs. Golden State (7) and Dallas (10) vs. Sacramento (9) will determine the first-round opponents for Oklahoma City (1) and Houston (2).

Whether the Thunder and Rockets, respectively, draw the Grizzlies, Warriors, Mavericks or Kings will have little impact on their odds to win the conference, which are detailed below.

NBA Western Conference Winner Odds

Below is a look at the odds to win the West as of Monday, April 14.

It’s no surprise to see the Thunder heavily favored following a 68-14 regular season. OKC is also the favorite to win the NBA Finals, just ahead of Eastern Conference favorite Boston.

It’s worth mentioning how little regard oddsmakers have for the regular-season standings. The 7-seeded Warriors — who need to beat the Grizzlies just to clinch a first-round matchup vs. the Rockets — have the third-shortest odds to win the West.

Speaking of Houston, oddsmakers are giving coach Ime Udoka’s squad no respect.

While it’s no surprise to see a roster this young enter the playoffs with longer odds than the Lakers and Thunder, it’s interesting that five teams that finished behind the Rockets in the standings — the Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves and Warriors — all enter the postseason with shorter odds to win this conference.

Is OKC Ready For a Playoff Run?

With LeBron James (and Luka Doncic), Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Edwards all lurking, OKC has a tough path to the Finals. That much will be true even if the Thunder dominate their first-round matchup against either the Kings, Mavericks or Grizzlies.

The Thunder would not have to face Doncic, who led the Mavs past OKC in last year’s conference semifinals, until the conference finals. But they’re guaranteed to face a formidable second-round opponent, regardless of how Nuggets vs. Clippers plays out.

You’ll hear plenty more about this throughout the next couple weeks, but be sure to check out OKC’s record against the top teams in the West this season before betting on the Western Conference Winner market.

Here’s the Thunder’s opponent-by-opponent record against the top contenders in the West:

• 3-2 vs. Rockets
• 2-1 vs. Lakers
• 2-2 vs. Nuggets
• 4-0 vs. Clippers
• 2-2 vs. Timberwolves
• 1-2 vs. Warriors

And keep in mind that the strong performances OKC enjoyed against the Clippers came with Leonard out of the lineup for all but one of the four matchups, while all three Thunder vs. Warriors matchups this year took place before Jimmy Butler joined Golden State.

The Thunder faced the Lakers once before the Doncic trade (winning 101-93 on November 29) and twice after. OKC split its two games vs. the Lakers with Luka in the lineup, but the former Mavs star was controversially ejected from the Thunder’s win over the Lakers on April 8.

Best Western Conference Value Bet: LA Clippers

Best odds as of April 14: +1500 at DK, FD

The Clippers only had Leonard in the lineup for 37 games this year, but their 26-11 record with him in action doesn’t quite do justice to how well they’re playing right now.

With an 18-3 record over their last 21 games, this team is on a tear, and that outstanding finish included a 3-1 mark in games where Leonard did not play.

Counting on Leonard to be available and James Harden to play his best basketball in the playoffs hasn’t been the best strategy since the Clippers acquired the former Spurs and Raptors star in 2019, but there’s no denying this team’s upside right now.

Clippers (4) vs. Nuggets (5) Betting Odds

Clippers vs. Nuggets Series Winner Odds

Early Thoughts on Clippers vs. Nuggets

Before Denver fired GM Calvin Booth and head coach Michael Malone last week, it would have been absurd to call the Nikola Jokic-led Nuggets the “wild card,” especially in a matchup vs. the Clippers.

But amid the uncertainty around how Denver will look under interim coach David Adelman and questions about point guard Jamal Murray’s hamstring, it’s hard to know what to expect from the Nuggets right now.

The Clippers are a tempting upset bet here. That being said, taking down Jokic’s Nuggets, who have homecourt advantage in this series, will be incredibly difficult, especially if Murray is available.

Murry returned from a six-game absence to help the Nuggets win their final two regular-season games, but his status remains a key X-factor in this matchup.

Lakers (3) vs. Timberwolves (6)

Lakers vs. Timberwolves Series Winner Odds

Early Thoughts on Lakers vs. Timberwolves

The talent in this one is worthy of a conference finals matchup, but unfortunately, one of these teams will be heading into the offseason early.

The Lakers went 1-2 vs. the Wolves in three early-season meetings, but won 111-102 in the only LA-MIN game this year that featured Luka Doncic.

Minnesota will need a phenomenal series from Anthony Edwards to pull off the upset. As good as he was in leading the Wolves past the Suns and the Nuggets in last year’s playoffs, I don’t love this matchup for Minnesota, which had no answer for Doncic in the 2024 Western Conference Finals.

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