In an extremely tight race that remains uncalled, Republican lawmakers and conservative commentators are already raising allegations of election fraud after Democratic challenger Derek Tran took a narrow 36-vote lead over incumbent GOP Rep. Michelle Steel in California‘s 45th Congressional District.
According to the California Secretary of State’s office, the latest ballot count shows Tran leading Steel by 152,981 to 152,945 votes, with both candidates at 50 percent of the total vote share. The slim margin represents a dramatic shift from earlier counts when Steel led by as many as 11,363 votes just days after the election.
The accusations come despite the fact that both Orange and Los Angeles Counties are following standard vote-counting procedures. No counting took place Sunday, with both counties scheduled to resume processing remaining ballots on Monday. Election officials have not disclosed the total number of outstanding ballots.
Newsweek contacted Tran and Steel’s campaign offices via email on Sunday for comment.
The Democrats are stealing a House seat right out from under us in CA.
We barely control the House and will have a 1 seat majority in January when Trump takes office while we fill 3 seats through special elections.
We have to stop election rigging, this is a continuing battle. https://t.co/fGz6U3pTgV
— Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸 (@mtgreenee) November 17, 2024
The allegations of impropriety began after MAGA social media platform Right Angle News Network posted on X, formerly Twitter: “BREAKING – Democrat Derek Chen has just taken the lead in a crucial California Congressional seat by a margin of 31 votes. Republican incumbent Michelle Steel now falls behind. Does anyone else find it funny that all across the country, provisional ballots and other ballots are being found, but they only seem to benefit one side?”
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene amplified these baseless claims, reposting the message and adding her own commentary: “The Democrats are stealing a House seat right out from under us in CA. We barely control the House and will have a 1 seat majority in January when Trump takes office while we fill 3 seats through special elections. We have to stop election rigging, this is a continuing battle.”
The district, which spans portions of both Orange and Los Angeles Counties, shows a clear geographic split in voter preferences. Steel maintains a lead in the Orange County portion, ahead by 138,320 to 134,168 votes (50.8 to 49.2 percent). However, Tran holds a stronger advantage in the Los Angeles County section of the district—which includes Artesia, Cerritos, Hawaiian Gardens, and part of Lakewood—leading by 18,813 to 14,625 votes (56.3 to 43.7 percent).
Political commentator Gunther Eagleman joined the chorus of accusations, posting on X: “While you slept last night, California was working overtime to steal the election. This race magically flipped days after the election.”
There is no excuse for any state to still be counting votes in the year 2024.
This is just ridiculous.
— Lauren Boebert (@laurenboebert) November 17, 2024
Rep. Lauren Boebert also weighed in, questioning the ongoing count: “There is no excuse for any state to still be counting votes in the year 2024. This is just ridiculous. Where’s the RNC?”
The steady erosion of Steel’s lead has been documented over several days of counting. Tran trailed by 58 votes before Saturday’s count resumed. Prior to that, the gap had steadily narrowed from 11,363 votes on November 6, to 7,590 on November 8, 6,901 on November 9, and 6,128 last Sunday when only Los Angeles County portion ballots were counted. The margin continued to shrink to 3,908 on Monday, 2,227 on Tuesday, 349 on Wednesday, and 236 on Thursday.
The 45th District race reflects broader political shifts in Orange County, once considered conservative holy ground where white, suburban homeowners reliably delivered winning margins for Republicans year after year.
Tran, a consumer rights attorney who co-owns a pharmacy with his wife Michelle, has steadily closed the gap with Steel as mail-in and provisional ballots continue to be counted.
While California is known as a liberal protectorate—with Democrats holding every statewide office, dominating the Legislature and congressional delegation—Republicans retain pockets of political clout in the Southern California suburbs and vast rural stretches, including the Central Valley farm belt.
Election officials have not indicated when they expect to complete the count or call the race.